气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The influence of mixing on the stratospheric age of air changes in the 21st century

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DOI	10.5194/acp-19-921-2019
	The influence of mixing on the stratospheric age of air changes in the 21st century
	Eichinger R.; DIetmüller S.; Garny H.; Šácha P.; Birner T.; Bönisch H.; Pitari G.; Visioni D.; Stenke A.; Rozanov E.; Revell L.; Plummer D.A.; Jöckel P.; Oman L.; Deushi M.; Kinnison D.E.; Garcia R.; Morgenstern O.; Zeng G.; Adam Stone K.; Schofield R.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	16807316
起始页码	921
结束页码	940
卷号	19 期号:2
英文摘要	Climate models consistently predict an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) due to climate change in the 21st century. However, the strength of this acceleration varies considerably among individual models, which constitutes a notable source of uncertainty for future climate projections. To shed more light upon the magnitude of this uncertainty and on its causes, we analyse the stratospheric mean age of air (AoA) of 10 climate projection simulations from the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative phase 1 (CCMI-I), covering the period between 1960 and 2100. In agreement with previous multi-model studies, we find a large model spread in the magnitude of the AoA trend over the simulation period. Differences between future and past AoA are found to be predominantly due to differences in mixing (reduced aging by mixing and recirculation) rather than differences in residual mean transport. We furthermore analyse the mixing efficiency, a measure of the relative strength of mixing for given residual mean transport, which was previously hypothesised to be a model constant. Here, the mixing efficiency is found to vary not only across models, but also over time in all models. Changes in mixing efficiency are shown to be closely related to changes in AoA and quantified to roughly contribute 10 % to the long-term AoA decrease over the 21st century. Additionally, mixing efficiency variations are shown to considerably enhance model spread in AoA changes. To understand these mixing efficiency variations, we also present a consistent dynamical framework based on diffusive closure, which highlights the role of basic state potential vorticity gradients in controlling mixing efficiency and therefore aging by mixing. © Author(s) 2019.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate modeling; climate prediction; potential vorticity; stratosphere; twenty first century
来源期刊	Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/144700
作者单位	Meteorological Institute Munich, Ludwig Maximilians Universität, Munich, Germany; Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany; Faculty of Sciences, EPhysLab, Universidade de Vigo, Ourense, Spain; Department of Atmospheric Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University Prague, Prague, Czech Republic; Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany; Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences, Università dell'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy; Department of Physical and Chemical Sciences and Center of Excellence CETEMPS, Università dell'Aquila, L'Aquila, Italy; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich (ETHZ), Zürich, Switzerland; Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos and World Radiation Center, Davos, Switzerland; Bodeker Scientific, Christchurch, New Zealand; School of Physical and Chemical Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Ze...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Eichinger R.,DIetmüller S.,Garny H.,et al. The influence of mixing on the stratospheric age of air changes in the 21st century[J],2019,19(2).
APA	Eichinger R..,DIetmüller S..,Garny H..,Šácha P..,Birner T..,...&Schofield R..(2019).The influence of mixing on the stratospheric age of air changes in the 21st century.Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,19(2).
MLA	Eichinger R.,et al."The influence of mixing on the stratospheric age of air changes in the 21st century".Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 19.2(2019).