气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Anthropogenic aerosol forcing-insights from multiple estimates from aerosol-climate models with reduced complexity

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DOI	10.5194/acp-19-6821-2019
	Anthropogenic aerosol forcing-insights from multiple estimates from aerosol-climate models with reduced complexity
	Fiedler S.; Kinne S.; Ting Katty Huang W.; Räisänen P.; O'Donnell D.; Bellouin N.; Stier P.; Merikanto J.; Van Noije T.; Makkonen R.; Lohmann U.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	16807316
起始页码	6821
结束页码	6841
卷号	19 期号:10
英文摘要	This study assesses the change in anthropogenic aerosol forcing from the mid-1970s to the mid-2000s. Both decades had similar global-mean anthropogenic aerosol optical depths but substantially different global distributions. For both years, we quantify (i) the forcing spread due to modelinternal variability and (ii) the forcing spread among models. Our assessment is based on new ensembles of atmosphereonly simulations with five state-of-the-art Earth system models. Four of these models will be used in the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6; Eyring et al., 2016). Here, the complexity of the anthropogenic aerosol has been reduced in the participating models. In all our simulations, we prescribe the same patterns of the anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and associated effects on the cloud droplet number concentration. We calculate the instantaneous radiative forcing (RF) and the effective radiative forcing (ERF). Their difference defines the net contribution from rapid adjustments. Our simulations show a model spread in ERF from-0:4 to-0:9 W m -2 . The standard deviation in annual ERF is 0.3 W m -2 , based on 180 individual estimates from each participating model. This result implies that identifying the model spread in ERF due to systematic differences requires averaging over a sufficiently large number of years. Moreover, we find almost identical ERFs for the mid-1970s and mid -2 000s for individual models, although there are major model differences in natural aerosols and clouds. The modelensemble mean ERF is-0:54 W m -2 for the pre-industrial era to the mid-1970s and-0:59 W m -2 for the pre-industrial era to the mid -2 000s. Our result suggests that comparing ERF changes between two observable periods rather than absolute magnitudes relative to a poorly constrained preindustrial state might provide a better test for a model's ability to represent transient climate changes. © 2019 Author(s).
语种	英语
来源期刊	Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/144388
作者单位	Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Atmosphere in the Earth System, Hamburg, Germany; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland; Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, Netherlands; Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research/Physics, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Fiedler S.,Kinne S.,Ting Katty Huang W.,et al. Anthropogenic aerosol forcing-insights from multiple estimates from aerosol-climate models with reduced complexity[J],2019,19(10).
APA	Fiedler S..,Kinne S..,Ting Katty Huang W..,Räisänen P..,O'Donnell D..,...&Lohmann U..(2019).Anthropogenic aerosol forcing-insights from multiple estimates from aerosol-climate models with reduced complexity.Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,19(10).
MLA	Fiedler S.,et al."Anthropogenic aerosol forcing-insights from multiple estimates from aerosol-climate models with reduced complexity".Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 19.10(2019).