气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Role of climate model dynamics in estimated climate responses to anthropogenic aerosols

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/acp-19-9969-2019
	Role of climate model dynamics in estimated climate responses to anthropogenic aerosols
	Nordling K.; Korhonen H.; Räisänen P.; Ege Alper M.; Uotila P.; O'donnell D.; Merikanto J.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	16807316
起始页码	9969
结束页码	9987
卷号	19 期号:15
英文摘要	Significant discrepancies remain in estimates of climate impacts of anthropogenic aerosols between different general circulation models (GCMs). Here, we demonstrate that eliminating differences in model aerosol or radiative forcing fields results in close agreement in simulated globally averaged temperature and precipitation responses in the studied GCMs. However, it does not erase the differences in regional responses. We carry out experiments of equilibrium climate response to modern-day anthropogenic aerosols using an identical representation of anthropogenic aerosol optical properties and the first indirect effect of aerosols, MACv2-SP (a simple plume implementation of the second version of the Max Planck Institute Aerosol CLimatology), in two independent climate models (NorESM, Norwegian Earth System Model, and ECHAM6). We find consistent global average temperature responses of -0.48 (±0.02) and -0.50 (±0.03)K and precipitation responses of -1.69 (±0.04)% and -1.79 (±0.05)% in NorESM1 and ECHAM6, respectively, compared to modern-day equilibrium climate without anthropogenic aerosols. However, significant differences remain between the two GCMs' regional temperature responses around the Arctic circle and the Equator and precipitation responses in the tropics. The scatter in the simulated globally averaged responses is small in magnitude when compared against literature data from modern GCMs using model intrinsic aerosols but same aerosol emissions -(0.5-1.1)K and -(1.5-3.1)% for temperature and precipitation, respectively). The Pearson correlation of regional temperature (precipitation) response in these literature model experiments with intrinsic aerosols is 0.79 (0.34). The corresponding correlation coefficient for NorESM1 and ECHAM6 runs with identical aerosols is 0.78 (0.41). The lack of improvement in correlation coefficients between models with identical aerosols and models with intrinsic aerosols implies that the spatial distribution of regional climate responses is not improved via homogenizing the aerosol descriptions in the models. Rather, differences in the atmospheric dynamic and snow/sea ice cover responses dominate the differences in regional climate responses. Hence, even if we would have perfect aerosol descriptions inside the global climate models, uncertainty arising from the differences in circulation responses between the models would likely still result in a significant uncertainty in regional climate responses. © Author(s) 2019.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	aerosol property; atmospheric general circulation model; climate effect; climate modeling; optical property; radiative forcing
来源期刊	Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/144225
作者单位	Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland; INAR/Physics, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nordling K.,Korhonen H.,Räisänen P.,et al. Role of climate model dynamics in estimated climate responses to anthropogenic aerosols[J],2019,19(15).
APA	Nordling K..,Korhonen H..,Räisänen P..,Ege Alper M..,Uotila P..,...&Merikanto J..(2019).Role of climate model dynamics in estimated climate responses to anthropogenic aerosols.Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,19(15).
MLA	Nordling K.,et al."Role of climate model dynamics in estimated climate responses to anthropogenic aerosols".Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 19.15(2019).