气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Water vapour adjustments and responses differ between climate drivers

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DOI	10.5194/acp-19-12887-2019
	Water vapour adjustments and responses differ between climate drivers
	Hodnebrog O.; Myhre G.; Samset B.H.; Alterskjær K.; Andrews T.; Boucher O.; Faluvegi G.; Fläschner D.; M Forster P.; Kasoar M.; Kirkeväg A.; Lamarque J.F.; Olivié D.; B Richardson T.; Shawki D.; Shindell D.; P Shine K.; Stier P.; Takemura T.; Voulgarakis A.; Watson-Parris D.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	16807316
起始页码	12887
结束页码	12899
卷号	19 期号:20
英文摘要	Water vapour in the atmosphere is the source of a major climate feedback mechanism and potential increases in the availability of water vapour could have important consequences for mean and extreme precipitation. Future precipitation changes further depend on how the hydrological cycle responds to different drivers of climate change, such as greenhouse gases and aerosols. Currently, neither the total anthropogenic influence on the hydrological cycle nor that from individual drivers is constrained sufficiently to make solid projections. We investigate how integrated water vapour (IWV) responds to different drivers of climate change. Results from 11 global climate models have been used, based on simulations where CO2, methane, solar irradiance, black carbon (BC), and sulfate have been perturbed separately. While the global-mean IWV is usually assumed to increase by ĝ1/47% per kelvin of surface temperature change, we find that the feedback response of IWV differs somewhat between drivers. Fast responses, which include the initial radiative effect and rapid adjustments to an external forcing, amplify these differences. The resulting net changes in IWV range from 6.4±0.9%K-1 for sulfate to 9.8±2%K-1 for BC. We further calculate the relationship between global changes in IWV and precipitation, which can be characterized by quantifying changes in atmospheric water vapour lifetime. Global climate models simulate a substantial increase in the lifetime, from 8.2±0.5 to 9.9±0.7d between 1986-2005 and 2081-2100 under a high-emission scenario, and we discuss to what extent the water vapour lifetime provides additional information compared to analysis of IWV and precipitation separately. We conclude that water vapour lifetime changes are an important indicator of changes in precipitation patterns and that BC is particularly efficient in prolonging the mean time, and therefore likely the distance, between evaporation and precipitation. © Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	black carbon; climate conditions; extreme event; feedback mechanism; hydrological cycle; precipitation assessment; precipitation intensity; water vapor
来源期刊	Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/144088
作者单位	CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Paris, France; CNRS, Sorbonne Université, Paris, France; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States; Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, United States; Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany; University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway; NCAR, UCAR, Boulder, United States; Duke University, Durham, United States; University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hodnebrog O.,Myhre G.,Samset B.H.,et al. Water vapour adjustments and responses differ between climate drivers[J],2019,19(20).
APA	Hodnebrog O..,Myhre G..,Samset B.H..,Alterskjær K..,Andrews T..,...&Watson-Parris D..(2019).Water vapour adjustments and responses differ between climate drivers.Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,19(20).
MLA	Hodnebrog O.,et al."Water vapour adjustments and responses differ between climate drivers".Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 19.20(2019).