气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures

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DOI	10.5194/acp-19-15235-2019
	The regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures
	Aamaas B.; Berntsen T.K.; Samset B.H.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	16807316
起始页码	15235
结束页码	15245
卷号	19 期号:24
英文摘要	Anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) affect both air quality and climate. How much regional temperatures are affected by ambitious SLCF emission mitigation policies is, however, still uncertain. We investigate the potential temperature implications of stringent air quality policies by applying matrices of regional temperature responses to new pathways for future anthropogenic emissions of aerosols, methane (CH4), and other short-lived gases. These measures have only a minor impact on CO2 emissions. Two main options are explored, one with climate optimal reductions (i.e., constructed to yield a maximum global cooling) and one with the maximum technically feasible reductions. The temperature response is calculated for four latitude response bands (90-28° S, 28° S-28° N, 28- 60° N, and 60-90° N) by using existing absolute regional temperature change potential (ARTP) values for four emission regions: Europe, East Asia, shipping, and the rest of the world. By 2050, we find that global surface temperature can be reduced by -0:3 ± 0:08 °C with climate-optimal mitigation of SLCFs relative to a baseline scenario and as much as -0:7 °C in the Arctic. Cutting CH4 and black carbon (BC) emissions contributes the most. The net global cooling could offset warming equal to approximately 15 years of current global CO2 emissions. On the other hand, mitigation of other SLCFs (e.g., SO2) leads to warming. If SLCFs are mitigated heavily, we find a net warming of about 0.1 °C, but when uncertainties are included a slight cooling is also possible. In the climate optimal scenario, the largest contributions to cooling come from the energy, domestic, waste, and transportation sectors. In the maximum technically feasible mitigation scenario, emission changes from the industry, energy, and shipping sectors will cause warming. Some measures, such as those in the agriculture waste burning, domestic, transport, and industry sectors, have large impacts on the Arctic, especially by cutting BC emissions in winter in areas near the Arctic. © 2019 Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	aerosol; air quality; air temperature; climate forcing; emission control; environmental policy; methane; policy approach; potential temperature; shipping; surface temperature; Europe; Far East
来源期刊	Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/143968
作者单位	CICERO Center for International Climate Research, PB 1129 Blindern, Oslo, 0318, Norway; Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, PB 1047 Blindern, Oslo, 0316, Norway
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Aamaas B.,Berntsen T.K.,Samset B.H.. The regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures[J],2019,19(24).
APA	Aamaas B.,Berntsen T.K.,&Samset B.H..(2019).The regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures.Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,19(24).
MLA	Aamaas B.,et al."The regional temperature implications of strong air quality measures".Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 19.24(2019).