气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Randomness; serendipity; and luck in petroleum exploration

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DOI	10.1306/05061918128
	Randomness; serendipity; and luck in petroleum exploration
	Milkov A.V.; Navidi W.C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0149-1423
起始页码	145
结束页码	176
卷号	104 期号:1
英文摘要	Petroleum explorers commonly acknowledge the contribution of luck in exploration outcomes. Our survey of 237 current industry practitioners revealed that 90% of them believe that luck affects the outcome of exploration projects. However, luck has never been quantified before as a factor in petroleum exploration, and therefore, it remains an abstract concept that is not deeply considered by geoscientists and exploration managers. Luck clearly exists in petroleum exploration, because it contributed to many serendipitously discovered plays and pools. Luck is also a factor in the relative performance of different exploration companies. Looking at companies exploring on the Norwegian Continental Shelf in 1966-2005, we concluded that differences in success rates of individual companies are essentially random. Using a global data set of 3258 conventional exploration wells in which 733 companies took 8096 equity positions in 2008-2017, we calculated that the proportion of variance in geological success rates among the companies is 39% attributable to luck (25% for commercial success), the rest being related to skill. In frontier plays, luck contribution to the variation in geological and commercial success rates between different companies is 100%. The factor of luck is relatively less in emerging (67% for geological success), maturing (38%), and mature (29%) plays. Recognizing that luck is a part of the exploration success equation has numerous implications for exploration strategies, investors, companies, managers, and individual explorers. The factor of luck can be reduced only through a sustainable long-term exploration program with numerous independent wells. Explorers should focus on developing their prediction skills rather than obsess about the binary outcomes of each well. © 2020 The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. All rights reserved.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Gasoline; Geology; Managers; Exploration company; Exploration projects; Exploration strategies; Exploration success; Norwegian continental shelves; Petroleum exploration; Proportion of variance; Relative performance; Petroleum prospecting; continental shelf; data set; hydrocarbon exploration; petroleum; prediction; Norway
来源期刊	AAPG Bulletin
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/143734
作者单位	Department of Geology and Geological Engineering, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, United States; Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Milkov A.V.,Navidi W.C.. Randomness; serendipity; and luck in petroleum exploration[J],2020,104(1).
APA	Milkov A.V.,&Navidi W.C..(2020).Randomness; serendipity; and luck in petroleum exploration.AAPG Bulletin,104(1).
MLA	Milkov A.V.,et al."Randomness; serendipity; and luck in petroleum exploration".AAPG Bulletin 104.1(2020).