气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Four scenarios of the energy transition: Drivers; consequences; and implications for geopolitics

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DOI	10.1002/wcc.625
	Four scenarios of the energy transition: Drivers; consequences; and implications for geopolitics
	Bazilian M.; Bradshaw M.; Gabriel J.; Goldthau A.; Westphal K.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1757-7780
卷号	11 期号:2
英文摘要	This opinion article offers insights into the geopolitics of the ongoing global energy transition. In doing so, it draws heavily on a workshop in Berlin in late 2018, and a subsequent paper in the journal Nature. Four scenarios are presented. First, the “Big Green Deal” offers a positive story of the future, under the assumption that there will be a multilateral approach to tackling climate change. Second, “Dirty Nationalism” explores the fallout of nations choosing to turn inward and pursue a short-term, protectionist, and self-interested agenda. Third, “Technology Breakthrough” illustrates how a technological leap forward could lead to a great power rivalry and distinct regional energy blocs. Finally, “Muddling On” investigates the outcome of an energy transition that reflect business as usual. By comparing and contrasting the different scenarios, the article highlights the potential winners and losers of the different scenarios, and the geopolitical consequences. It also sketches the implications for policy, theory, and scenario thinking more broadly. This article is categorized under: Integrated Assessment of Climate Change > Integrated Scenario Development The Carbon Economy and Climate Mitigation > Future of Global Energy. © 2019 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
英文关键词	energy transition; geopolitics; scenarios
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Business-as-usual; Carbon economy; Climate mitigations; Energy transitions; geopolitics; Integrated assessment; Scenario development; scenarios; Climate change; alternative energy; climate change; energy policy; geopolitics; integrated approach; scenario analysis; Berlin; Germany
来源期刊	Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/142285
作者单位	Colorado School of Mines, Payne Institute, Golden, CO, United States; Warwick Business School, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom; Foresight Intelligence, Berlin, Germany; Willy Brandt School of Public Policy at the University of Erfurt, Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies, Potsdam, Germany; Global Issues Division and Head of Geopolitics of Energy Transformation (GET 2030) Project, Institute for International and Security Affairs, Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), Berlin, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bazilian M.,Bradshaw M.,Gabriel J.,et al. Four scenarios of the energy transition: Drivers; consequences; and implications for geopolitics[J],2020,11(2).
APA	Bazilian M.,Bradshaw M.,Gabriel J.,Goldthau A.,&Westphal K..(2020).Four scenarios of the energy transition: Drivers; consequences; and implications for geopolitics.Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,11(2).
MLA	Bazilian M.,et al."Four scenarios of the energy transition: Drivers; consequences; and implications for geopolitics".Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 11.2(2020).