气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Fasting season length sets temporal limits for global polar bear persistence

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-020-0818-9
	Fasting season length sets temporal limits for global polar bear persistence
	Molnár P.K.; Bitz C.M.; Holland M.M.; Kay J.E.; Penk S.R.; Amstrup S.C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1758-678X
起始页码	732
结束页码	738
卷号	10 期号:8
英文摘要	Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) require sea ice for capturing seals and are expected to decline range-wide as global warming and sea-ice loss continue1,2. Estimating when different subpopulations will likely begin to decline has not been possible to date because data linking ice availability to demographic performance are unavailable for most subpopulations2 and unobtainable a priori for the projected but yet-to-be-observed low ice extremes3. Here, we establish the likely nature, timing and order of future demographic impacts by estimating the threshold numbers of days that polar bears can fast before cub recruitment and/or adult survival are impacted and decline rapidly. Intersecting these fasting impact thresholds with projected numbers of ice-free days, estimated from a large ensemble of an Earth system model4, reveals when demographic impacts will likely occur in different subpopulations across the Arctic. Our model captures demographic trends observed during 1979–2016, showing that recruitment and survival impact thresholds may already have been exceeded in some subpopulations. It also suggests that, with high greenhouse gas emissions, steeply declining reproduction and survival will jeopardize the persistence of all but a few high-Arctic subpopulations by 2100. Moderate emissions mitigation prolongs persistence but is unlikely to prevent some subpopulation extirpations within this century. © 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	bear; demography; global change; global warming; persistence; pinniped; population decline; population estimation; sea ice; subpopulation; survival; temporal analysis; Arctic; Ursus maritimus
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/142175
作者单位	Biological Sciences, University of Toronto Scarborough, Toronto, ON, Canada; Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Atmospheric Sciences MS351640, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Polar Bears International, Bozeman, MT, United States; Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Molnár P.K.,Bitz C.M.,Holland M.M.,et al. Fasting season length sets temporal limits for global polar bear persistence[J],2020,10(8).
APA	Molnár P.K.,Bitz C.M.,Holland M.M.,Kay J.E.,Penk S.R.,&Amstrup S.C..(2020).Fasting season length sets temporal limits for global polar bear persistence.Nature Climate Change,10(8).
MLA	Molnár P.K.,et al."Fasting season length sets temporal limits for global polar bear persistence".Nature Climate Change 10.8(2020).