气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Human influence on joint changes in temperature; rainfall and continental aridity

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-020-0821-1
	Human influence on joint changes in temperature; rainfall and continental aridity
	Bonfils C.J.W.; Santer B.D.; Fyfe J.C.; Marvel K.; Phillips T.J.; Zimmerman S.R.H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1758-678X
起始页码	726
结束页码	731
卷号	10 期号:8
英文摘要	Despite the pervasive impact of drought on human and natural systems, the large-scale mechanisms conducive to regional drying remain poorly understood. Here we use a multivariate approach1,2 to identify two distinct externally forced fingerprints from multiple ensembles of Earth system model simulations. The leading fingerprint, FM1(x), is characterized by global warming, intensified wet–dry patterns3 and progressive large-scale continental aridification, largely driven by multidecadal increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The second fingerprint, FM2(x), captures a pronounced interhemispheric temperature contrast4,5, associated meridional shifts in the intertropical convergence zone6–9 and correlated anomalies in precipitation and aridity over California10, the Sahel11,12 and India. FM2(x) exhibits nonlinear temporal behaviour: the intertropical convergence zone moves southwards before 1975 in response to increases in hemispherically asymmetric sulfate aerosol emissions, and it shifts northwards after 1975 due to reduced sulfur dioxide emissions and the GHG-induced warming of Northern Hemisphere landmasses. Both fingerprints are statistically identifiable in observations of joint changes in temperature, rainfall and aridity during 1950–2014. We show that the reliable simulation of these changes requires combined forcing by GHGs, direct and indirect effects of aerosols, and large volcanic eruptions. Our results suggest that GHG-induced aridification may be modulated regionally by future reductions in sulfate aerosol emissions. © 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	aerosol; anthropogenic effect; aridification; aridity; climate forcing; drought stress; global warming; greenhouse gas; intertropical convergence zone; meridional circulation; Northern Hemisphere; rainfall; temperature effect; California; India; Sahel [Sub-Saharan Africa]; United States
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/142167
作者单位	Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCDMI), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada; Department of Applied Mathematics and Applied Physics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States; Center for Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (CAMS), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bonfils C.J.W.,Santer B.D.,Fyfe J.C.,et al. Human influence on joint changes in temperature; rainfall and continental aridity[J],2020,10(8).
APA	Bonfils C.J.W.,Santer B.D.,Fyfe J.C.,Marvel K.,Phillips T.J.,&Zimmerman S.R.H..(2020).Human influence on joint changes in temperature; rainfall and continental aridity.Nature Climate Change,10(8).
MLA	Bonfils C.J.W.,et al."Human influence on joint changes in temperature; rainfall and continental aridity".Nature Climate Change 10.8(2020).