气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Natural variability or climate change? Stakeholder and citizen perceptions of extreme event attribution

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102070
	Natural variability or climate change? Stakeholder and citizen perceptions of extreme event attribution
	Osaka S.; Bellamy R.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	62
英文摘要	Scientists can now connect extreme weather events with climate change using a methodology known as “extreme event attribution”, or EEA. The idea of connecting climate change and extreme weather has long been heralded as a panacea for communications, connecting the dangers of climate change to real-world, on-the-ground events. However, event attribution remains a nascent science, and attribution studies of the same event can sometimes produce divergent answers due to precise methodology used, variables examined, and the timescale selected for the event. The 2011–2017 California drought was assessed by 11 EEA studies which came to varying conclusions on its connection to climate change. This article uses the case study of the drought and a multi-methods approach to examine perceptions of EEA among key stakeholders and citizens. Twenty-five key informant interviews were conducted with different stakeholders: scientists performing EEA research, journalists, local and state-level policymakers, and non-governmental organization representatives. In addition, two focus groups with 20 California citizens were convened: one with environmentalists and another with agriculturalists. While climate change was viewed by many as a mild contributing factor to the California drought, many stakeholders had not heard of EEA or doubted that scientists could conclusively link the drought to anthropogenic climate change; those that were familiar with EEA felt that the science was generally uncertain. In the focus groups, presentation of divergent EEA results led participants to revert to pre-existing ideas about the drought-climate connection, or to question whether science had sufficiently advanced to analyze the event properly. These results indicate that while EEA continues to provoke interest and research in the scientific community, it is not currently utilized by many stakeholders, and may entrench the public in pre-existing views. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	California drought; Climate change; Climate communication; Extreme event attribution; Perception; Weather
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; drought; extreme event; methodology; nongovernmental organization; perception; precision; research work; stakeholder; weather forecasting; California; United States
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/142060
作者单位	School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Department of Geography, University of Manchester, Arthur Lewis Building, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9PL, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Osaka S.,Bellamy R.. Natural variability or climate change? Stakeholder and citizen perceptions of extreme event attribution[J],2020,62.
APA	Osaka S.,&Bellamy R..(2020).Natural variability or climate change? Stakeholder and citizen perceptions of extreme event attribution.Global Environmental Change,62.
MLA	Osaka S.,et al."Natural variability or climate change? Stakeholder and citizen perceptions of extreme event attribution".Global Environmental Change 62(2020).