气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102063
	Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk
	Ide T.; Brzoska M.; Donges J.F.; Schleussner C.-F.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	62
英文摘要	Climate-related disasters are among the most societally disruptive impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Their potential impact on the risk of armed conflict is heavily debated in the context of the security implications of climate change. Yet, evidence for such climate-conflict-disaster links remains limited and contested. One reason for this is that existing studies do not triangulate insights from different methods and pay little attention to relevant context factors and especially causal pathways. By combining statistical approaches with systematic evidence from QCA and qualitative case studies in an innovative multi-method research design, we show that climate-related disasters increase the risk of armed conflict onset. This link is highly context-dependent and we find that countries with large populations, political exclusion of ethnic groups, and a low level of human development are particularly vulnerable. For such countries, almost one third of all conflict onsets over the 1980-2016 period have been preceded by a disaster within 7 days. The robustness of the effect is reduced for longer time spans. Case study evidence points to improved opportunity structures for armed groups rather than aggravated grievances as the main mechanism connecting disasters and conflict onset. © 2020 The Authors
英文关键词	Civil war; Crisis; Environment; Hazard; Peace; Violence
语种	英语
scopus关键词	anthropogenic effect; civil war; climate change; climate effect; crisis management; disaster; environmental conditions; ethnic group; hazard assessment; methodology; peace process; risk assessment; violence; vulnerability
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/142059
作者单位	School of Geography, University of Melbourne, Australia; Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy (IFSH), University of Hamburg, Germany; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Sweden; Climate Analytics, Berlin, Germany; IRI THESys, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ide T.,Brzoska M.,Donges J.F.,et al. Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk[J],2020,62.
APA	Ide T.,Brzoska M.,Donges J.F.,&Schleussner C.-F..(2020).Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk.Global Environmental Change,62.
MLA	Ide T.,et al."Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk".Global Environmental Change 62(2020).