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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102120
	Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress?
	van Zeist W.-J.; Stehfest E.; Doelman J.C.; Valin H.; Calvin K.; Fujimori S.; Hasegawa T.; Havlik P.; Humpenöder F.; Kyle P.; Lotze-Campen H.; Mason-D'Croz D.; van Meijl H.; Popp A.; Sulser T.B.; Tabeau A.; Verhagen W.; Wiebe K.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	64
英文摘要	Historical increases in agricultural production were achieved predominantly by large increases in agricultural productivity. Intensification of crop and livestock production also plays a key role in future projections of agricultural land use. Here, we assess and discuss projections of crop yields by global agricultural land-use and integrated assessment models. To evaluate these crop yield projections, we compare them to empirical data on attainable yields by employing a linear and plateauing continuation of observed attainable yield trends. While keeping in mind the uncertainties of attainable yields projections and not considering future climate change impacts, we find that, on average for all cereals on the global level, global projected yields by 2050 remain below the attainable yields. This is also true for future pathways with high technological progress and mitigation efforts, indicating that projected yield increases are not overly optimistic, even under systemic transformations. On a regional scale, we find that for developing regions, specifically for sub-Saharan Africa, projected yields stay well below attainable yields, indicating that the large yield gaps which could be closed through improved crop management, may also persist in the future. In OECD countries, in contrast, current yields are already close to attainable yields, and the projections approach or, for some models, even exceed attainable yields by 2050. This observation parallels research suggesting that future progress in attainable yields in developed regions will mainly have to be achieved through new crop varieties or genetic improvements. The models included in this study vary widely in their implementation of yield progress, which are often split into endogenous (crop management) improvements and exogenous (technological) trends. More detail and transparency are needed in these important elements of global yields and land use projections, and this paper discusses possibilities of better aligning agronomic understanding of yield gaps and yield potentials with modelling approaches. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Attainable yield; Crop yield projections; Integrated assessment; Land use; Potential yield; Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs)
语种	英语
scopus关键词	agricultural intensification; agricultural land; agricultural production; climate change; crop yield; cultivar; developing world; future prospect; livestock farming; OECD; Sub-Saharan Africa
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/142010
作者单位	PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, Netherlands; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany; Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States; Wageningen Economic Research, Wageningen University and Research, The Hague, Netherlands; International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, DC, United States; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), St Lucia, Queensland, Australia; Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan; Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany; Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Ritsumeikan University, 1-1-1, Nojihigashi, Kusatsu, Shiga 525-8577, Jap...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	van Zeist W.-J.,Stehfest E.,Doelman J.C.,et al. Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress?[J],2020,64.
APA	van Zeist W.-J..,Stehfest E..,Doelman J.C..,Valin H..,Calvin K..,...&Wiebe K..(2020).Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress?.Global Environmental Change,64.
MLA	van Zeist W.-J.,et al."Are scenario projections overly optimistic about future yield progress?".Global Environmental Change 64(2020).