气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate-Induced migration and unemployment in middle-income Africa

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102183
	Climate-Induced migration and unemployment in middle-income Africa
	Mueller V.; Gray C.; Hopping D.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	65
英文摘要	One of the major unresolved questions in the study of vulnerability to climate change is how human migration will respond in low and middle-income countries. The present study directly addresses this lacuna by using census data on migration from 4 million individuals from three middle-income African countries over a 22-year period. We link these individuals to climate exposures in their origins and estimate climatic effects on migration using a fixed-effects regression model. We show that climate anomalies affect mobility in all three countries. Specifically, mobility declines by 19% with a 1-standard deviation increase in temperature in Botswana. Equivalent changes in precipitation cause declines in migration in Botswana (11%) and Kenya (10%), and increases in migration in Zambia (24%). The mechanisms underlying these effects appear to differ by country. Negative associations between precipitation anomalies, unemployment, and inactivity suggest migration declines may be due to an increased local demand for workers to offset production risk, while migration increases may be indicative of new opportunities in destinations. These country-specific findings highlight the contextually-specific nature of climate-migration relationships, and do not support claims that climate change is widely contributing to urbanization across Africa. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
英文关键词	Africa; Climate anomalies; Employment; Migration
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; migration; population decline; precipitation (climatology); spatiotemporal analysis; unemployment; urbanization; Botswana; Kenya; Zambia; Lacuna
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/141985
作者单位	School of Politics and Global Studies, Arizona State University, PO Box 873902, Tempe, AZ 85297-3902, United States; International Food Policy Research Institute, 1201 Eye Street, NW, Washington, DC 20005-3915, United States; UNC Department of Geography, CB #3220, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3220, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mueller V.,Gray C.,Hopping D.. Climate-Induced migration and unemployment in middle-income Africa[J],2020,65.
APA	Mueller V.,Gray C.,&Hopping D..(2020).Climate-Induced migration and unemployment in middle-income Africa.Global Environmental Change,65.
MLA	Mueller V.,et al."Climate-Induced migration and unemployment in middle-income Africa".Global Environmental Change 65(2020).