气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Joint modeling of precipitation and temperature under influences of El Niño Southern Oscillation for compound event evaluation and prediction

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105090
	Joint modeling of precipitation and temperature under influences of El Niño Southern Oscillation for compound event evaluation and prediction
	Hao Z.; Zhang X.; Singh V.P.; Hao F.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	245
英文摘要	Compound precipitation and temperature events have received much attention in recent decades owing to their amplified impacts on agriculture, economy and public health. Due to the relationship between precipitation and temperature, both of which are affected by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in large regions across the globe, joint modeling of their variability under influences of ENSO is desirable for understanding compound events. In this study, a statistical approach is proposed for the evaluation and prediction of compound precipitation and temperature events (with a focus on compound dry and hot events) under influences of ENSO by constructing the joint distribution of precipitation, temperature, and the ENSO indicator. The joint probability of precipitation and temperature is compared with the conditional probability given different states of ENSO for June–July-August (JJA) and December–January-February (DJF) over global land areas. Results show that ENSO affects the risk of compound dry and hot events in regions including southern Canada, northern South America, southeast Asia, south Africa, and part of Australia. The conditional distribution of precipitation and temperature given ENSO enables the probabilistic prediction of compound events. The strong El Niño event during DJF 2015–2016 significantly affects risks of the compound dry and hot event and provides useful early warning information for large regions including northern South America and south Africa. This study provides useful insights for improved understanding and early warning of compound dry and hot events to reduce their negative impacts. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Compound event; Drought; Dry and hot; ENSO
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agricultural robots; Atmospheric pressure; Forecasting; Probability distributions; Conditional distribution; Conditional probabilities; Evaluation and predictions; Joint distributions; Joint probability; Probabilistic prediction; Southern oscillation; Statistical approach; Climatology; air temperature; atmospheric modeling; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; numerical model; precipitation assessment; prediction; probability; statistical analysis; Australia; Canada; South Africa; South America; Southeast Asia
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/141830
作者单位	College of Water Sciences, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875, China; Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering and Zachry Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843-2117, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hao Z.,Zhang X.,Singh V.P.,et al. Joint modeling of precipitation and temperature under influences of El Niño Southern Oscillation for compound event evaluation and prediction[J],2020,245.
APA	Hao Z.,Zhang X.,Singh V.P.,&Hao F..(2020).Joint modeling of precipitation and temperature under influences of El Niño Southern Oscillation for compound event evaluation and prediction.Atmospheric Research,245.
MLA	Hao Z.,et al."Joint modeling of precipitation and temperature under influences of El Niño Southern Oscillation for compound event evaluation and prediction".Atmospheric Research 245(2020).