气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projections of future meteorological drought events under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of CMIP5 over Kenya; East Africa

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105112
	Projections of future meteorological drought events under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of CMIP5 over Kenya; East Africa
	Tan G.; Ayugi B.; Ngoma H.; Ongoma> V.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	246
英文摘要	Understanding future evolution of drought scenario across localized domains remains an imperative process in bid to adapt tailor suit innovative solutions to drought risks and their impacts. The present study examines drought events by characterizing the trend, intensity, severity and frequency based on Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), over Kenya, East Africa for near future (2010–2039), mid-century (2040–2069), and late century (2070–2100). The study utilizes Multi-model mean ensemble (MME) of five selected regional climate models (RCMs). Further, the models are bias corrected based on a quantile mapping bias corrected algorithm in order to minimize possible bias for accurate projections. The changes in annual and seasonal precipitation over Kenya is examined in order to associate with changes in drought occurrence. Results demonstrate positive shift, indicating an increase in projected rainfall change during all the three timescales. Projections of possible future meteorological drought events under RCPs scenario over study locale was conducted using SPI. The results demonstrate relatively better performance of biased corrected MME derived from Rossby Centre regional climate model (RCA4) in simulating drought indices over the Kenya. The MME projections for drought duration show an increase in moderate drought incidences with fewer incidences of extreme events across the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios respectively. However, the duration of occurrences varies from one region to another with most hotspots located around northeastern sides of the country. Examination of projected changes in drought frequency and severity depict an occurrence of severe to extreme drought incidences that are expected to intensify during the near future time slice while overall projections show that more wet scenarios is depicted, with fewer cases of drought expected to occur during mid and towards end of the century of projection period. The study calls for enactment of appropriate mitigation measures to cope with possible scenarios of drought risks over Kenya in the future. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	Drought; Future projections; Kenya; Rossby centre atmospheric regional climate model (RCA4); Standardized precipitation index (SPI)
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Risk assessment; Risk perception; Innovative solutions; Meteorological drought; Mitigation measures; Projection period; Regional climate modeling; Regional climate models; Seasonal precipitations; Standardized precipitation index; Drought; climate modeling; climate prediction; concentration (composition); drought; frequency analysis; regional climate; standardization; weather forecasting; Kenya
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/141794
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing, University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; School of Geography, Earth Science and Environment, University of the South Pacific, Laucala Campus Private Bag, Suva, Fiji
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tan G.,Ayugi B.,Ngoma H.,et al. Projections of future meteorological drought events under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of CMIP5 over Kenya; East Africa[J],2020,246.
APA	Tan G.,Ayugi B.,Ngoma H.,&Ongoma> V..(2020).Projections of future meteorological drought events under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of CMIP5 over Kenya; East Africa.Atmospheric Research,246.
MLA	Tan G.,et al."Projections of future meteorological drought events under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of CMIP5 over Kenya; East Africa".Atmospheric Research 246(2020).