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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105127
	Exploring the limits of ensemble forecasting via solutions of the Liouville equation for realistic geophysical models
	Hermoso A.; Homar V.; Yano J.-I.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	246
英文摘要	The atmosphere is an exemplary case of uncertain system. The state of such systems is described by means of probability density functions which encompass uncertainty information. In this regard, the Liouville equation is the theoretical framework to predict the evolution of the state of uncertain systems. This study analyses the morphological characteristics of the time evolution of probability density functions for some low complexity geophysical systems by solving the Liouville equation in order to obtain tractable solutions which are otherwise unfeasible with currently available computational resources. The current and usual modest approach to overcome these obstacles and estimate the probability density function of the system in realistic weather and climate applications is the use of a discrete and small number of samples of the state of the system, evolved individually in a deterministic, perhaps sometimes stochastic, way. We investigate particular solutions of the shallow water equations and the barotropic model that allow to apply the Liouville formalism to explore its topological characteristics and interpret them in terms of the ensemble prediction system approach. We provide quantitative evidences of the high variability that solutions to Liouville equation may present, challenging currently accepted uses and interpretations of ensemble forecasts. © 2020 The Authors
英文关键词	Ensemble prediction systems; Liouville equation; Probability density function
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Equations of motion; Forecasting; Geophysics; Probability density function; Stochastic systems; Topology; Uncertain systems; Computational resources; Ensemble forecasting; Ensemble prediction systems; Morphological characteristic; Shallow water equations; Theoretical framework; Topological characteristics; Uncertainty informations; Liouville equation; climate modeling; ensemble forecasting; geophysical method; probability density function; shallow-water equation; uncertainty analysis; weather forecasting
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/141784
作者单位	Meteorology Group, Physics Department, Universitat de les Illes Balears, Mallorca, Palma, Spain; CNRM (CNRS and Météo-France), Toulouse Cedex, 31057, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hermoso A.,Homar V.,Yano J.-I.. Exploring the limits of ensemble forecasting via solutions of the Liouville equation for realistic geophysical models[J],2020,246.
APA	Hermoso A.,Homar V.,&Yano J.-I..(2020).Exploring the limits of ensemble forecasting via solutions of the Liouville equation for realistic geophysical models.Atmospheric Research,246.
MLA	Hermoso A.,et al."Exploring the limits of ensemble forecasting via solutions of the Liouville equation for realistic geophysical models".Atmospheric Research 246(2020).