气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Predicting the rapid intensification and dynamics of pre-monsoon extremely severe cyclonic storm ‘Fani’ (2019) over the Bay of Bengal in a 12-km global model

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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105222
	Predicting the rapid intensification and dynamics of pre-monsoon extremely severe cyclonic storm ‘Fani’ (2019) over the Bay of Bengal in a 12-km global model
	Singh V.; Konduru R.T.; Srivastava A.K.; Momin I.M.; Kumar S.; Singh A.K.; Bisht D.S.; Tiwari S.; Sinha A.K.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	247
英文摘要	The present study investigates into genesis, intensification, dynamical behavior and the prediction of Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm (ESCS) ‘Fani' over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) in the National Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) global numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling system ‘NCUM.’ The global model is adopted from the UK Met office's Unified Model (UM). The ESCS ‘Fani' formed from 26 April–04 May 2019, over the warm waters of BoB. In the criterion of landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs), which crossed the Orissa coast, it was the most intense cyclonic storm during pre-monsoon season since 1965. The TC exhibited a markedly different characteristic having genesis very near to the equator (near 2.7°N and 88.7°E) and possessing one of the longest tracks (~3030-km) over the BoB region. The NCUM global model was operationally run during the occurrence of the TC. The diagnosis of the TC's genesis and rapid intensification (RI) in the model is carried out using various metrics such as Genesis potential parameter (GPP), winds at 850-hPa, vertically integrated moisture flux, potential vorticity (PV) at isentropic level 315 K, Severe Weather Threat (SWEAT) index and daily averaged latent heat flux, etc. It is found that the early genesis, structure, RI, and movement of the TC were well captured by the model in advance. The Model predicted TC tracks for a total of seven initial conditions (from 27 April to 03 May 2019, at 24-h interval) are found closely co-related with the observed best track of the TC provided by India Meteorological Department (IMD). The lower values of Direct Position Errors (DPEs), along-track errors (ATEs), and cross-track errors (CTEs) indicate the skillful prediction of the TC by the model. The structure, amplitude, and location (SAL) simulated precipitation of the TC over the BoB and along the central-east coast of India are in agreement with the observed systems. Our detailed diagnostic analysis suggests that the TC formation, development, and intensification was mostly controlled by the warmer BoB sea surface temperatures. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	NCUM global model; Potential Vorticity; SWEAT index; Tropical cyclone
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric thermodynamics; Errors; Heat flux; Oceanography; Storms; Surface waters; Dynamical behaviors; East coast of india; Landfalling tropical cyclones; Numerical weather prediction models; Potential parameters; Potential vorticity; Rapid intensification; Sea surface temperature (SST); Weather forecasting
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/141745
作者单位	Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (Delhi Branch), Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Govt. of India, New Delhi, India; Department of Geography, Tokyo Metropolitan University, 1-1 Minami-Osawa, Hachioji-shi, Tokyo, Japan; National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, Sector-62, Noida, U.P., India; Department of Physics, Banaras Hindu University, Varanasi, India; University Department of Geography, Vinoba Bhave University, Hazaribag, Jharkhand, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Singh V.,Konduru R.T.,Srivastava A.K.,等. Predicting the rapid intensification and dynamics of pre-monsoon extremely severe cyclonic storm ‘Fani’ (2019) over the Bay of Bengal in a 12-km global model[J],2021,247.
APA	Singh V..,Konduru R.T..,Srivastava A.K..,Momin I.M..,Kumar S..,...&Sinha A.K..(2021).Predicting the rapid intensification and dynamics of pre-monsoon extremely severe cyclonic storm ‘Fani’ (2019) over the Bay of Bengal in a 12-km global model.Atmospheric Research,247.
MLA	Singh V.,et al."Predicting the rapid intensification and dynamics of pre-monsoon extremely severe cyclonic storm ‘Fani’ (2019) over the Bay of Bengal in a 12-km global model".Atmospheric Research 247(2021).