气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Spatiotemporal patterns of future temperature and precipitation over China projected by PRECIS under RCPs

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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105303
	Spatiotemporal patterns of future temperature and precipitation over China projected by PRECIS under RCPs
	Wu Y.; Guo J.; Lin H.; Bai J.; Wang X.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	249
英文摘要	In this study, the spatiotemporal patterns of future temperature and precipitation changes over China are explored with the regional climate model PRECIS at two horizontal resolutions (25 km and 50 km). The gauge-based temperature (CN05.1) and precipitation data (APHRODITE) are used to validate the performance of PRECIS. The results show that PRECIS has better performance in reproducing the present climatology in spatial distribution and annual cycle than its driving GCM, particularly in some cold months and the high latitude regions, though the simulation is worse in precipitation over the high-cold Tibet Plateau of China. Compared to the observation, the difference between the simulations at 50 km (R50) and 25 km (R25) resolutions is very small. Projected annual temperature and precipitation will increase gradually with the time over most regions of China, especially in the late of this century. The results from R25 show the mean temperature over China will increase by ~1.3(1.5) °C in the early century, 2.7(3.5) °C in the middle century, and 3.5(5.9) °C in the late century under RCP4.5(8.5), which are all smaller than the values from its driving GCM. Most models project that the temperature will have more increases in cold months (i.e., January to March) while the southeastern region will show smaller changes relative to other sub-regions. Additionally, China will receive more precipitation from the overall trend, but the increased amplitude among different concentration scenarios and models are different obviously. The projections from R25 show more precipitation than the R50 and their driving GCM. For instance, the annual mean precipitation will increase by ~15(22) % for GCM, ~20(33) % for R50 and ~ 22(37) % for R25 in the late of this century over the entire China under RCP4.5(8.5). The annual cycles of precipitation at sub-regions also show a distinct variation. The changes are smaller in October or November than other months for the southeastern and central regions, while the percentage change is larger in the northwest, which will alleviate the pressure of water shortage in this arid region of China. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	China; Climate change; Precipitation; Regional climate model; Temperature
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Earth atmosphere; Meteorology; Annual mean precipitation; Annual temperatures; High-latitude regions; Horizontal resolution; Precipitation change; Precipitation data; Regional climate modeling; Spatiotemporal patterns; Climate models; air temperature; annual cycle; climate change; climate modeling; climatology; future prospect; precipitation (climatology); regional climate; spatial distribution; spatiotemporal analysis; China; Qinghai-Xizang Plateau
来源期刊	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/141642
作者单位	Nari Group Corporation/State Grid Electric Power Research Institute, Nanjing, 211106, China; Beijing Kedong Power Control System Co Ltd, Beijing, 100192, China; MOE Key Laboratory of Resource and Environmental, System Optimization, College of Environmental Science and Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, 102206, China; School of Climate Change and Adaptation, University of Prince Edward Island, Charlottetown, PE C1A 4P3, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wu Y.,Guo J.,Lin H.,et al. Spatiotemporal patterns of future temperature and precipitation over China projected by PRECIS under RCPs[J],2021,249.
APA	Wu Y.,Guo J.,Lin H.,Bai J.,&Wang X..(2021).Spatiotemporal patterns of future temperature and precipitation over China projected by PRECIS under RCPs.Atmospheric Research,249.
MLA	Wu Y.,et al."Spatiotemporal patterns of future temperature and precipitation over China projected by PRECIS under RCPs".Atmospheric Research 249(2021).