气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: Methodology and 2015-2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic; climate policy; and pollution control scenarios

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/acp-20-5729-2020
	Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: Methodology and 2015-2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic; climate policy; and pollution control scenarios
	Tong D.; Cheng J.; Liu Y.; Yu S.; Yan L.; Hong C.; Qin Y.; Zhao H.; Zheng Y.; Geng G.; Li M.; Liu F.; Zhang Y.; Zheng B.; Clarke L.; Zhang Q.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1680-7316
起始页码	5729
结束页码	5757
卷号	20 期号:9
英文摘要	Future trends in air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for China are of great concern to the community. A set of global scenarios regarding future socio-economic and climate developments, combining shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) with climate forcing outcomes as described by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), was created by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Chinese researchers have also developed various emission scenarios by considering detailed local environmental and climate policies. However, a comprehensive scenario set connecting SSP-RCP scenarios with local policies and representing dynamic emission changes under local policies is still missing. In this work, to fill this gap, we developed a dynamic projection model, the Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China (DPEC), to explore China's future anthropogenic emission pathways. The DPEC is designed to integrate the energy system model, emission inventory model, dynamic projection model, and parameterized scheme of Chinese policies. The model contains two main modules, an energy-model-driven activity rate projection module and a sector-based emission projection module. The activity rate projection module provides the standardized and unified future energy scenarios after reorganizing and refining the outputs from the energy system model. Here we use a new China-focused version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-China) to project future energy demand and supply in China under different SSP-RCP scenarios at the provincial level. The emission projection module links a bottom-up emission inventory model, the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), to GCAM-China and accurately tracks the evolution of future combustion and production technologies and control measures under different environmental policies. We developed technology-based turnover models for several key emitting sectors (e.g. coalfired power plants, key industries, and on-road transportation sectors), which can simulate the dynamic changes in the unit/vehicle fleet turnover process by tracking the lifespan of each unit/vehicle on an annual basis. With the integrated modelling framework, we connected five SSP scenarios (SSP1-5), five RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, 7.0, 6.0, 4.5, and 2.6), and three pollution control scenarios (business as usual, BAU; enhanced control policy, ECP; and best health effect, BHE) to produce six combined emission scenarios. With those scenarios, we presented a wide range of China's future emissions to 2050 under different development and policy pathways. We found that, with a combination of strong low-carbon policy and air pollution con trol policy (i.e. SSP1-26-BHE scenario), emissions of major air pollutants (i.e. SO2, NOx, PM2:5, and non-methane volatile organic compounds-NMVOCs) in China will be reduced by 34 %-66 % in 2030 and 58 %-87 % in 2050 compared to 2015. End-of-pipe control measures are more effective for reducing air pollutant emissions before 2030, while low-carbon policy will play a more important role in continuous emission reduction until 2050. In contrast, China's emissions will remain at a high level until 2050 under a reference scenario without active actions (i.e. SSP3-70-BAU). Compared to similar scenarios set from the CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), our estimates of emission ranges are much lower than the estimates from the harmonized CMIP6 emissions dataset in 2020-2030, but their emission ranges become similar in the year 2050. © 2020 Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	anthropogenic source; atmospheric pollution; combustion; emission inventory; environmental policy; forecasting method; pollution control; socioeconomic status; China
来源期刊	Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/141342
作者单位	Ministry of Education, Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, University Research Court, College Park, MD 20742, United States; State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Center for Global Sustainability, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tong D.,Cheng J.,Liu Y.,et al. Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: Methodology and 2015-2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic; climate policy; and pollution control scenarios[J],2020,20(9).
APA	Tong D..,Cheng J..,Liu Y..,Yu S..,Yan L..,...&Zhang Q..(2020).Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: Methodology and 2015-2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic; climate policy; and pollution control scenarios.Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,20(9).
MLA	Tong D.,et al."Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: Methodology and 2015-2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic; climate policy; and pollution control scenarios".Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 20.9(2020).