气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/acp-20-9591-2020
	Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models
	J. Smith C.; J. Kramer R.; Myhre G.; Alterskjr K.; Collins W.; Sima A.; Boucher O.; Dufresne J.-L.; Nabat P.; Michou M.; Yukimoto S.; Cole J.; Paynter D.; Shiogama H.; M. O'Connor F.; Robertson E.; Wiltshire A.; Andrews T.; Hannay C.; Miller R.; Nazarenko L.; Kirkevg A.; Olivi D.; Fiedler S.; Lewinschal A.; MacKallah C.; Dix M.; Pincus R.; M. Forster P.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1680-7316
起始页码	9591
结束页码	9618
卷号	20 期号:16
英文摘要	The effective radiative forcing, which includes the instantaneous forcing plus adjustments from the atmosphere and surface, has emerged as the key metric of evaluating human and natural influence on the climate. We evaluate effective radiative forcing and adjustments in 17 contemporary climate models that are participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and have contributed to the Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP). Present-day (2014) global-mean anthropogenic forcing relative to pre-industrial (1850) levels from climate models stands at 2.00 (0:23) Wm2, comprised of 1.81 (0:09) Wm2 from CO2, 1.08 ( 0.21) Wm2 from other well-mixed greenhouse gases, 1:01 ( 0.23) Wm2 from aerosols and 0:09 (0:13) Wm2 from land use change. Quoted uncertainties are 1 standard deviation across model best estimates, and 90 confidence in the reported forcings, due to internal variability, is typically within 0.1 Wm2. The majority of the remaining 0:21Wm2 is likely to be from ozone. In most cases, the largest contributors to the spread in effective radiative forcing (ERF) is from the instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) and from cloud responses, particularly aerosol-cloud interactions to aerosol forcing. As determined in previous studies, cancellation of tropospheric and surface adjustments means that the stratospherically adjusted radiative forcing is approximately equal to ERF for greenhouse gas forcing but not for aerosols, and consequentially, not for the anthropogenic total. The spread of aerosol forcing ranges from 0:63 to 1:37Wm2, exhibiting a less negative mean and narrower range compared to 10 CMIP5 models. The spread in 4CO2 forcing has also narrowed in CMIP6 compared to 13 CMIP5 models. Aerosol forcing is uncorrelated with climate sensitivity. Therefore, there is no evidence to suggest that the increasing spread in climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models, particularly related to high-sensitivity models, is a consequence of a stronger negative present-day aerosol forcing and little evidence that modelling groups are systematically tuning climate sensitivity or aerosol forcing to recreate observed historical warming. © Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	aerosol; anthropogenic source; climate modeling; CMIP; radiative forcing; sensitivity analysis
来源期刊	Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/141154
作者单位	School of Earth and Environment, University of LeedsLS2 9JT, United Kingdom; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, 2361, Austria; Climate and Radiation Laboratory, Nasa Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States; Universities Space Research Association, 7178 Columbia Gateway Drive, Columbia, MD 21046, United States; Cicero, Oslo, Norway; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, United Kingdom; LMD/IPSL Sorbonne Universit, Ens, Psl Universita, Ecole Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Cnrs, Paris, France; Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Universita, Cnrs, Paris, France; Cnrm, Universita de Toulouse, Mto-France, Cnrs, Toulouse, France; Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, 305-0052, Japan; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University Forrestal Campus, 201 Forrestal Road, Princeton, NJ 08540-...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	J. Smith C.,J. Kramer R.,Myhre G.,et al. Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models[J],2020,20(16).
APA	J. Smith C..,J. Kramer R..,Myhre G..,Alterskjr K..,Collins W..,...&M. Forster P..(2020).Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models.Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,20(16).
MLA	J. Smith C.,et al."Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models".Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 20.16(2020).