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| DOI | 10.1126/science.aax0194 |
| Colorado River flow dwindles as warming-driven loss of reflective snow energizes evaporation | |
| Milly P.C.D.; Dunne K.A. | |
| 发表日期 | 2020 |
| ISSN | 0036-8075 |
| 起始页码 | 1252 |
| 结束页码 | 1255 |
| 卷号 | 367期号:6483 |
| 英文摘要 | The sensitivity of river discharge to climate-system warming is highly uncertain, and the processes that govern river discharge are poorly understood, which impedes climate-change adaptation. A prominent exemplar is the Colorado River, where meteorological drought and warming are shrinking a water resource that supports more than 1 trillion dollars of economic activity per year. A Monte Carlo simulation with a radiation-aware hydrologic model resolves the longstanding, wide disparity in sensitivity estimates and reveals the controlling physical processes. We estimate that annual mean discharge has been decreasing by 9.3% per degree Celsius of warming because of increased evapotranspiration, mainly driven by snow loss and a consequent decrease in reflection of solar radiation. Projected precipitation increases likely will not suffice to fully counter the robust, thermodynamically induced drying. Thus, an increasing risk of severe water shortages is expected. © 2020 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved. |
| 关键词 | snowdroughteconomic activityevaporationMonte Carlo analysisriver dischargeriver flowsimulationwarmingwater resourceArticleclimate warmingColoradodroughtevaporationevapotranspirationhydrological modelilluminationMonte Carlo methodprecipitationpriority journalriversensitivity analysissolar radiationthermodynamicswater flowwater supplyColorado River [North America] |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 来源机构 | Science |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/133629 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Milly P.C.D.,Dunne K.A.. Colorado River flow dwindles as warming-driven loss of reflective snow energizes evaporation[J]. Science,2020,367(6483). |
| APA | Milly P.C.D.,&Dunne K.A..(2020).Colorado River flow dwindles as warming-driven loss of reflective snow energizes evaporation.,367(6483). |
| MLA | Milly P.C.D.,et al."Colorado River flow dwindles as warming-driven loss of reflective snow energizes evaporation".367.6483(2020). |
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