气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought

CCPortal

DOI	10.1126/science.aaz9600
	Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought
	Williams A.P.; Cook E.R.; Smerdon J.E.; Cook B.I.; Abatzoglou J.T.; Bolles K.; Baek S.H.; Badger A.M.; Livneh B.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0036-8075
起始页码	314
结束页码	318
卷号	368 期号:6488
英文摘要	Severe and persistent 21st-century drought in southwestern North America (SWNA) motivates comparisons to medieval megadroughts and questions about the role of anthropogenic climate change. We use hydrological modeling and new 1200-year tree-ring reconstructions of summer soil moisture to demonstrate that the 2000-2018 SWNA drought was the second driest 19-year period since 800 CE, exceeded only by a late-1500s megadrought. The megadrought-like trajectory of 2000-2018 soil moisture was driven by natural variability superimposed on drying due to anthropogenic warming. Anthropogenic trends in temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation estimated from 31 climate models account for 47% (model interquartiles of 35 to 105%) of the 2000-2018 drought severity, pushing an otherwise moderate drought onto a trajectory comparable to the worst SWNA megadroughts since 800 CE. © 2020 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.
关键词	anthropogenic effect drought global warming hydrological modeling reconstruction tree ring twenty first century article climate change drought humidity Middle Ages North America precipitation soil moisture summer warming comparative study drought greenhouse effect history human activities hydrology soil theoretical model North America Droughts Global Warming History, 21st Century History, Medieval Human Activities Hydrology Models, Theoretical North America Soil
语种	英语
来源机构	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/133565
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Williams A.P.,Cook E.R.,Smerdon J.E.,et al. Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought[J]. Science,2020,368(6488).
APA	Williams A.P..,Cook E.R..,Smerdon J.E..,Cook B.I..,Abatzoglou J.T..,...&Livneh B..(2020).Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought.,368(6488).
MLA	Williams A.P.,et al."Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought".368.6488(2020).