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| DOI | 10.1126/science.aba9757 |
| The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak | |
| Chinazzi M.; Davis J.T.; Ajelli M.; Gioannini C.; Litvinova M.; Merler S.; Pastore y Piontti A.; Mu K.; Rossi L.; Sun K.; Viboud C.; Xiong X.; Yu H.; Elizabeth Halloran M.; Longini I.M.; Jr.; Vespignani A. | |
| 发表日期 | 2020 |
| ISSN | 0036-8075 |
| 起始页码 | 395 |
| 结束页码 | 400 |
| 卷号 | 368期号:6489 |
| 英文摘要 | Motivated by the rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated on the basis of internationally reported cases and shows that, at the start of the travel ban from Wuhan on 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travelers. The travel quarantine of Wuhan delayed the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days in mainland China but had a more marked effect on the international scale, where case importations were reduced by nearly 80% until mid-February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community. Copyright © 2020 The Authors, |
| 关键词 | disease severitydisease transmissionepidemicinfectivitymetapopulationquarantinetravel behaviorviral diseasevirusArticlecommunicable disease controlcoronavirus disease 2019disease transmissionepidemichumanincidenceincubation timeinfection ratepopulation riskprevalencepriority journalquarantinerisk reductiontravel restrictionChinaHubeiWuhanCoronavirus |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 来源机构 | Science |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/133553 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chinazzi M.,Davis J.T.,Ajelli M.,et al. The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak[J]. Science,2020,368(6489). |
| APA | Chinazzi M..,Davis J.T..,Ajelli M..,Gioannini C..,Litvinova M..,...&Vespignani A..(2020).The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.,368(6489). |
| MLA | Chinazzi M.,et al."The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak".368.6489(2020). |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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