气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)

CCPortal

DOI	10.1126/science.abb3221
	Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)
	Li R.; Pei S.; Chen B.; Song Y.; Zhang T.; Yang W.; Shaman J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0036-8075
起始页码	489
结束页码	493
卷号	368 期号:6490
英文摘要	Estimation of the prevalence and contagiousness of undocumented novel coronavirus [severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)] infections is critical for understanding the overall prevalence and pandemic potential of this disease. Here, we use observations of reported infection within China, in conjunction with mobility data, a networked dynamic metapopulation model, and Bayesian inference, to infer critical epidemiological characteristics associated with SARS-CoV-2, including the fraction of undocumented infections and their contagiousness. We estimate that 86% of all infections were undocumented [95% credible interval (CI): 82–90%] before the 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. The transmission rate of undocumented infections per person was 55% the transmission rate of documented infections (95% CI: 46–62%), yet, because of their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the source of 79% of the documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV-2 and indicate that containment of this virus will be particularly challenging. © 2020 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.
关键词	disease prevalence disease spread disease transmission infectious disease metapopulation population modeling viral disease virus Article Bayes theorem China conceptual framework coronavirus disease 2019 data analysis disease severity disease transmission documentation human mathematical model metapopulation nonhuman priority journal Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 travel validation process China Coronavirus SARS coronavirus
语种	英语
来源机构	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/133536
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li R.,Pei S.,Chen B.,et al. Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)[J]. Science,2020,368(6490).
APA	Li R..,Pei S..,Chen B..,Song Y..,Zhang T..,...&Shaman J..(2020).Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2).,368(6490).
MLA	Li R.,et al."Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2)".368.6490(2020).