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| DOI | 10.1126/science.abb4557 |
| Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed COVID-19 cases in China | |
| Maier B.F.; Brockmann D. | |
| 发表日期 | 2020 |
| ISSN | 0036-8075 |
| 起始页码 | 742 |
| 结束页码 | 746 |
| 卷号 | 368期号:6492 |
| 英文摘要 | The recent outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in mainland China was characterized by a distinctive subexponential increase of confirmed cases during the early phase of the epidemic, contrasting with an initial exponential growth expected for an unconstrained outbreak. We show that this effect can be explained as a direct consequence of containment policies that effectively deplete the susceptible population. To this end, we introduce a parsimonious model that captures both quarantine of symptomatic infected individuals, as well as population-wide isolation practices in response to containment policies or behavioral changes, and show that the model captures the observed growth behavior accurately. The insights provided here may aid the careful implementation of containment strategies for ongoing secondary outbreaks of COVID-19 or similar future outbreaks of other emergent infectious diseases. Copyright © 2020 The Authors, |
| 关键词 | disease controldisease prevalenceepidemichealth geographypublic healthquarantinesymptomviral diseaseChinaCoronavirusbasic reproduction numberbehaviorBetacoronavirusChinacommunicable disease controlcontact examinationCoronavirus infectiondisease predispositionepidemichumanpandemicquarantinestatistical modelvirus pneumoniaBasic Reproduction NumberBehaviorBetacoronavirusChinaCommunicable Disease ControlContact TracingCoronavirus InfectionsDisease OutbreaksDisease SusceptibilityHumansModels, StatisticalPandemicsPneumonia, ViralQuarantine |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 来源机构 | Science |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/133507 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Maier B.F.,Brockmann D.. Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed COVID-19 cases in China[J]. Science,2020,368(6492). |
| APA | Maier B.F.,&Brockmann D..(2020).Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed COVID-19 cases in China.,368(6492). |
| MLA | Maier B.F.,et al."Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed COVID-19 cases in China".368.6492(2020). |
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