气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1126/science.abb8001
	Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China
	Zhang J.; Litvinova M.; Liang Y.; Wang Y.; Wang W.; Zhao S.; Wu Q.; Merler S.; Viboud C.; Vespignani A.; Ajelli M.; Yu H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	10959203
起始页码	1481
结束页码	1486
卷号	368 期号:6498
英文摘要	Intense nonpharmaceutical interventions were put in place in China to stop transmission of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). As transmission intensifies in other countries, the interplay between age, contact patterns, social distancing, susceptibility to infection, and COVID-19 dynamics remains unclear. To answer these questions, we analyze contact survey data for Wuhan and Shanghai before and during the outbreak and contact-tracing information from Hunan province. Daily contacts were reduced seven- to eightfold during the COVID-19 social distancing period, with most interactions restricted to the household. We find that children 0 to 14 years of age are less susceptible to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection than adults 15 to 64 years of age (odds ratio 0.34, 95% confidence interval 0.24 to 0.49), whereas individuals more than 65 years of age are more susceptible to infection (odds ratio 1.47, 95% confidence interval 1.12 to 1.92). Based on these data, we built a transmission model to study the impact of social distancing and school closure on transmission. We find that social distancing alone, as implemented in China during the outbreak, is sufficient to control COVID-19. Although proactive school closures cannot interrupt transmission on their own, they can reduce peak incidence by 40 to 60% and delay the epidemic. Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.
关键词	adolescent adult age aged behavior Betacoronavirus child China communicable disease control contact examination Coronavirus infection disease predisposition epidemic female human infant male middle aged pandemic preschool child school theoretical model virus pneumonia workplace young adult Adolescent Adult Age Factors Aged Behavior Betacoronavirus Child Child, Preschool China Communicable Disease Control Contact Tracing Coronavirus Infections Disease Outbreaks Disease Susceptibility Female Humans Infant Male Middle Aged Models, Theoretical Pandemics Pneumonia, Viral Schools Workplace Young Adult
语种	英语
来源机构	Science (New York, N.Y.)
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/133405
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang J.,Litvinova M.,Liang Y.,et al. Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China[J]. Science (New York, N.Y.),2020,368(6498).
APA	Zhang J..,Litvinova M..,Liang Y..,Wang Y..,Wang W..,...&Yu H..(2020).Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China.,368(6498).
MLA	Zhang J.,et al."Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China".368.6498(2020).