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| DOI | 10.1126/science.abc3517 |
| Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France | |
| Salje H.; Tran Kiem C.; Lefrancq N.; Courtejoie N.; Bosetti P.; Paireau J.; Andronico A.; Hozé N.; Richet J.; Dubost C.-L.; Le Strat Y.; Lessler J.; Levy-Bruhl D.; Fontanet A.; Opatowski L.; Boelle P.-Y.; Cauchemez S. | |
| 发表日期 | 2020 |
| ISSN | 10959203 |
| 起始页码 | 208 |
| 结束页码 | 211 |
| 卷号 | 369期号:6500 |
| 英文摘要 | France has been heavily affected by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and went into lockdown on 17 March 2020. Using models applied to hospital and death data, we estimate the impact of the lockdown and current population immunity. We find that 2.9% of infected individuals are hospitalized and 0.5% of those infected die (95% credible interval: 0.3 to 0.9%), ranging from 0.001% in those under 20 years of age to 8.3% in those 80 years of age or older. Across all ages, men are more likely to be hospitalized, enter intensive care, and die than women. The lockdown reduced the reproductive number from 2.90 to 0.67 (77% reduction). By 11 May 2020, when interventions are scheduled to be eased, we project that 3.5 million people (range: 2.1 million to 6.0 million), or 5.3% of the population (range: 3.3 to 9.3%), will have been infected. Population immunity appears to be insufficient to avoid a second wave if all control measures are released at the end of the lockdown. Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. |
| 关键词 | adolescentadultagedCoronavirus infectioncost of illnessfemaleFrancehospitalizationhumanimmunityimmunologyintensive caremalemiddle agedmortalitypandemicquarantineSARS coronavirusvery elderlyvirus pneumoniayoung adultAdolescentAdultAgedAged, 80 and overCoronavirus InfectionsCost of IllnessCritical CareFemaleFranceHospitalizationHumansImmunityMaleMiddle AgedPandemicsPneumonia, ViralQuarantineSARS VirusYoung Adult |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 来源机构 | Science (New York, N.Y.) |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/133344 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Salje H.,Tran Kiem C.,Lefrancq N.,et al. Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France[J]. Science (New York, N.Y.),2020,369(6500). |
| APA | Salje H..,Tran Kiem C..,Lefrancq N..,Courtejoie N..,Bosetti P..,...&Cauchemez S..(2020).Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France.,369(6500). |
| MLA | Salje H.,et al."Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France".369.6500(2020). |
| 条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 | |||||
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