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DOI | 10.1126/science.abb9789 |
Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions | |
Dehning J.; Zierenberg J.; Spitzner F.P.; Wibral M.; Neto J.P.; Wilczek M.; Priesemann V. | |
发表日期 | 2020 |
ISSN | 10959203 |
卷号 | 369期号:6500 |
英文摘要 | As coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is rapidly spreading across the globe, short-term modeling forecasts provide time-critical information for decisions on containment and mitigation strategies. A major challenge for short-term forecasts is the assessment of key epidemiological parameters and how they change when first interventions show an effect. By combining an established epidemiological model with Bayesian inference, we analyzed the time dependence of the effective growth rate of new infections. Focusing on COVID-19 spread in Germany, we detected change points in the effective growth rate that correlate well with the times of publicly announced interventions. Thereby, we could quantify the effect of interventions and incorporate the corresponding change points into forecasts of future scenarios and case numbers. Our code is freely available and can be readily adapted to any country or region. Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. |
关键词 | Bayes theoremCoronavirus infectionforecastingGermanyhumanpandemicsocial distancevirus pneumoniaBayes TheoremCoronavirus InfectionsForecastingGermanyHumansPandemicsPneumonia, ViralSocial Distance |
语种 | 英语 |
来源机构 | Science (New York, N.Y.) |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/133343 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Dehning J.,Zierenberg J.,Spitzner F.P.,et al. Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions[J]. Science (New York, N.Y.),2020,369(6500). |
APA | Dehning J..,Zierenberg J..,Spitzner F.P..,Wibral M..,Neto J.P..,...&Priesemann V..(2020).Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions.,369(6500). |
MLA | Dehning J.,et al."Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions".369.6500(2020). |
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