气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

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DOI	10.1126/science.abc2535
	Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
	Baker R.E.; Yang W.; Vecchi G.A.; Metcalf C.J.E.; Grenfell B.T.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	10959203
起始页码	315
结束页码	319
卷号	369 期号:6501
英文摘要	Preliminary evidence suggests that climate may modulate the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Yet it remains unclear whether seasonal and geographic variations in climate can substantially alter the pandemic trajectory, given that high susceptibility is a core driver. Here, we use a climate-dependent epidemic model to simulate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic by probing different scenarios based on known coronavirus biology. We find that although variations in weather may be important for endemic infections, during the pandemic stage of an emerging pathogen, the climate drives only modest changes to pandemic size. A preliminary analysis of nonpharmaceutical control measures indicates that they may moderate the pandemic-climate interaction through susceptible depletion. Our findings suggest that without effective control measures, strong outbreaks are likely in more humid climates and summer weather will not substantially limit pandemic growth. Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.
语种	英语
来源机构	Science (New York, N.Y.)
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/133341
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Baker R.E.,Yang W.,Vecchi G.A.,et al. Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic[J]. Science (New York, N.Y.),2020,369(6501).
APA	Baker R.E.,Yang W.,Vecchi G.A.,Metcalf C.J.E.,&Grenfell B.T..(2020).Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.,369(6501).
MLA	Baker R.E.,et al."Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic".369.6501(2020).