气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Economic costs of heat-induced reductions in worker productivity due to global warming

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DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102087
	Economic costs of heat-induced reductions in worker productivity due to global warming
	Orlov A.; Sillmann J.; Aunan K.; Kjellstrom T.; Aaheim A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	63
英文摘要	We assess economic costs of heat-induced reductions in worker productivity at global scale under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. Losses in worker productivity are calculated by using an empirically estimated epidemiological exposure-response function, and the associated economic costs are assessed by using a dynamic multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model. Autonomous mechanisation of outdoor work in agriculture and construction is implemented in the model. We find that under RCP8.5 by 2100, heat-induced reductions in worker productivity result in an average decline of 1.4% in global gross domestic product (GDP) relative to the reference scenario with no climate change. This is approximately 0.4 percentage points less than when no autonomous mechanisation is assumed. For comparison, measuring the economic costs using occupational health and safety recommendations leads to a 2.4% reduction in global GDP, which is substantially larger than when the epidemiological exposure-response function is used. Countries of Africa, South-East Asia, and South Asia are the worst affected by heat stress. However, economic costs could be substantially alleviated if a 2°C global warming target is achieved. Under RCP2.6, the average reduction in global GDP is only 0.5%. A large fraction of global mitigation costs of achieving the 2°C global warming target could be offset by the avoided adverse impacts of heat stress on worker productivity at higher warming levels. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
关键词	economic analysis epidemiology global warming numerical model occupational exposure warming Africa Far East South Asia
语种	英语
来源机构	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/133285
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Orlov A.,Sillmann J.,Aunan K.,et al. Economic costs of heat-induced reductions in worker productivity due to global warming[J]. Global Environmental Change,2020,63.
APA	Orlov A.,Sillmann J.,Aunan K.,Kjellstrom T.,&Aaheim A..(2020).Economic costs of heat-induced reductions in worker productivity due to global warming.,63.
MLA	Orlov A.,et al."Economic costs of heat-induced reductions in worker productivity due to global warming".63(2020).