气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The influence of climate and management on survival probability for Germany's most important tree species

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DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2019.117652
	The influence of climate and management on survival probability for Germany's most important tree species
	Brandl S.; Paul C.; Knoke T.; Falk W.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0378-1127
卷号	458
英文摘要	Due to climate change for many regions an increase in tree mortality is expected. Considering changes in mortality risk is important for management decisions. Therefore, models are needed that predict mortality risk under future climate. We fitted survival models for Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), Silver Fir (Abies alba Mill.), Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirbel) Franco), European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.), sessile oak (Quercus petraea (Mattuschka) Liebl.), and pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) based on the German crown condition survey as well as pan-European crown condition data from Level I and Level II plots, thus encompassing large environmental gradients. We used parametric accelerated failure time models assuming Weibull- or log-normal distribution of survival times. The models allow to estimate survival probability in dependence on age, climate and species mixture. For all species, a decrease in survival probability with increasing temperatures was found. Decreasing precipitation increased mortality risk for Norway spruce, Scots pine and Douglas fir. In addition, for Norway spruce and Douglas fir a positive effect of species admixture on survival was found. In summary, we could fit parsimonious parametric survival models explaining differences in survival times by 30-year climate averages that we interpret as predisposing factors that increase a tree's vulnerability. However, uncertainty in estimations remains high due to limitations of the sampling design and the methodology. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.
关键词	Climate models Forestry Normal distribution Plants (botany)Weibull distribution Accelerated failure time models European beech (fagus sylvatica l.)Increasing temperatures Log-normal distribution Picea Abies (L.) Karst Silver fir (Abies alba Mill.)Survival analysis Tree mortality Climate change ecological modeling environmental gradient mortality risk precipitation (chemistry)precipitation (climatology)survival tree Forestry Models Mortality Probability Pseudotsuga Statistical Distribution Survival Germany Abies Abies alba Fagus sylvatica Picea abies Pinus sylvestris Pseudotsuga Pseudotsuga menziesii Quercus petraea Quercus robur
语种	英语
来源机构	Forest Ecology and Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/133097
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Brandl S.,Paul C.,Knoke T.,et al. The influence of climate and management on survival probability for Germany's most important tree species[J]. Forest Ecology and Management,2020,458.
APA	Brandl S.,Paul C.,Knoke T.,&Falk W..(2020).The influence of climate and management on survival probability for Germany's most important tree species.,458.
MLA	Brandl S.,et al."The influence of climate and management on survival probability for Germany's most important tree species".458(2020).