气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Previous year outbreak conditions and spring climate predict spruce budworm population changes in the following year

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DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2019.117737
	Previous year outbreak conditions and spring climate predict spruce budworm population changes in the following year
	Li M.; MacLean D.A.; Hennigar C.R.; Ogilvie J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0378-1127
卷号	458
英文摘要	We determined effects of local spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.; SBW) population level, proximity to sites with high SBW populations, insecticide spray, and environmental variables on SBW populations from 2014 to 2018, the outbreak initiation period in northern New Brunswick, Canada. SBW second instar larvae (L2) per branch data collected at 1100–2000 sample points per year were used to create annual interpolated population rasters. Fishnet sample points extracted from these rasters were overlaid with georeferenced layers of 46 possible predictor variables including forest composition, climate, topography, site quality, and insecticide treatment. Results showed that local SBW population in the previous year, proximity to sites with high SBW populations, and early spring climate were consistently the most important predictors over the 5 study years. Simultaneous autoregressive models were used to address spatial autocorrelation when forecasting the SBW L2 population, and a linear mixed effects model was fit to aggregate data for 2015–2018. The models reduced spatial dependence in the residuals, and explained 68–79% of variance in annual L2 levels and 53% of variance over the 4 years combined. Sensitivity analysis showed that locations with 5–10 more SBW L2 per branch than observed values, or 20–40 km closer to high population sites in the previous year could have up to 24 more L2 in the current year. Cumulative degree days in April helped to estimate the upper and lower bounds of the population. Expansion and retraction of SBW outbreak initiation were mathematically described. Understanding which variables influence SBW outbreak initiation and population level assists in design of small area target-specific insecticide spray applications and helps focus SBW L2 sampling on predicted outbreak hot spots. © 2019 Elsevier B.V.
关键词	Autocorrelation Forecasting Forestry Insecticides Regression analysis Sensitivity analysis Topography Autoregression Choristoneura fumiferana Environmental variables Linear mixed-effects model Outbreak initiation Simultaneous autoregressive model Spatial autocorrelations Upper and lower bounds Population statistics autocorrelation biological development climate effect insecticide moth pest outbreak prediction Forecasts Forestry Initiation Insecticides Regression Analysis Sites Topography Variables Canada New Brunswick Choristoneura fumiferana
语种	英语
来源机构	Forest Ecology and Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/133085
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li M.,MacLean D.A.,Hennigar C.R.,et al. Previous year outbreak conditions and spring climate predict spruce budworm population changes in the following year[J]. Forest Ecology and Management,2020,458.
APA	Li M.,MacLean D.A.,Hennigar C.R.,&Ogilvie J..(2020).Previous year outbreak conditions and spring climate predict spruce budworm population changes in the following year.,458.
MLA	Li M.,et al."Previous year outbreak conditions and spring climate predict spruce budworm population changes in the following year".458(2020).