气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate relationships with increasing wildfire in the southwestern US from 1984 to 2015

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DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2019.117861
	Climate relationships with increasing wildfire in the southwestern US from 1984 to 2015
	Mueller S.E.; Thode A.E.; Margolis E.Q.; Yocom L.L.; Young J.D.; Iniguez J.M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0378-1127
卷号	460
英文摘要	Over the last several decades in forest and woodland ecosystems of the southwestern United States, wildfire size and severity have increased, thereby increasing the vulnerability of these systems to type conversions, invasive species, and other disturbances. A combination of land use history and climate change is widely thought to be contributing to the changing fire regimes. We examined climate-fire relationships in forest and woodland ecosystems from 1984 to 2015 in Arizona and New Mexico using 1) an expanded satellite-derived burn severity dataset that incorporates over one million additional burned hectares when compared to MTBS data, and 2) climate variables including temperature, precipitation, and vapor pressure deficit (VPD). Regional climate-fire relationships were assessed by correlating annual area burned, area burned at high and low severity, and percent high severity with fire season (May-August) and water-year (October-September) climate variables. We also analyzed relationships between climate and high-severity fire at the scale of the individual fire using a hurdle model. We found that increasing temperature and VPD and decreasing precipitation were associated with increasing area burned regionally, and that area burned at high severity had the strongest relationships with climate metrics. The relationship between climate and fire activity in the Southwest appears to be strengthening since 2000. VPD-fire correlations were consistently as strong as, or stronger than, temperature or precipitation variables alone, both regionally and at the scale of the individual fire. Notably, at the scale of the individual fire, temperature and precipitation were not significant predictors of fire activity. Thus, our results support the use of VPD as a more integrative climate metric to forecast fire activity. We suggest that the strong relationship between VPD and fire activity may be useful to assess the likelihood of high-severity fire occurrence through continued development of the high-severity fire threshold model we present. The link between increasing aridity and increasing wildfire activity suggests a future with more fire in Southwest forests and woodlands with projected warming, underscoring the urgency of restoration in dry forests to reduce the likelihood of uncharacteristic, large high-severity fires. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
关键词	Bond (masonry)Climate change Conservation Ecosystems Fires Forestry Land use Temperature Arizona Fire effect Fire severity High severity fires MTBS New Mexico RdNBR Climate models air temperature aridity climate change climate effect fire history forest ecosystem invasive species land use precipitation (climatology)threshold vapor pressure vulnerability wildfire woodland Conservation Ecosystems Fires Forestry Land Use Temperature Arizona New Mexico United States
语种	英语
来源机构	Forest Ecology and Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/132988
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mueller S.E.,Thode A.E.,Margolis E.Q.,et al. Climate relationships with increasing wildfire in the southwestern US from 1984 to 2015[J]. Forest Ecology and Management,2020,460.
APA	Mueller S.E.,Thode A.E.,Margolis E.Q.,Yocom L.L.,Young J.D.,&Iniguez J.M..(2020).Climate relationships with increasing wildfire in the southwestern US from 1984 to 2015.,460.
MLA	Mueller S.E.,et al."Climate relationships with increasing wildfire in the southwestern US from 1984 to 2015".460(2020).