气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate change effects on wildfire hazards in the wildland-urban-interface

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DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2020.117927
	Climate change effects on wildfire hazards in the wildland-urban-interface – Blue pine forests of Bhutan
	Vilà-Vilardell L.; Keeton W.S.; Thom D.; Gyeltshen C.; Tshering K.; Gratzer G.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0378-1127
卷号	461
英文摘要	Increased wildfire activity in the Himalayan Mountains due to climate change may place rural livelihoods at risk, yet potential climate change effects on forest fires in this region are poorly investigated. Here we use Bhutan's blue pine (Pinus wallichiana) ecosystems to study the sensitivity of fire behavior to climatic changes. Wildland fires are one of the biggest threats to forest resources in Bhutan; blue pine ecosystems, in particular, are of high concern because of their importance for rural livelihoods and relatively high frequency of forest fires. Due to the geographical and socioeconomic characteristics of Bhutan, the region is highly sensitive to climate change. We investigated fire hazards in the wildland-urban-interface (WUI) of two valleys in Bhutan (Thimphu and Jakar), where human settlements and infrastructure are surrounded by blue pine forests. We applied FlamMap, a spatially-explicit wildfire simulation model, to simulate fire behavior under four climate scenarios. As indicators of fire behavior, we used flame length, rate of spread, crown fire activity, burn probability, and fire size. With the simulation outcomes we constructed a fire hazard map showing the hotspots of forest fire susceptibility. FlamMap predicts a two-fold increase in fire hazards in the WUI for both study areas owing to climatic changes. The capital city of Thimphu has, on average, greater fire hazards than Jakar, though fire hazards are spatially variable within both study areas. Our study contributes to the understanding of and ability to predict forest fire hazards in Himalayan blue pine ecosystems. The findings will help to more precisely allocate fire management resources in the WUI, plan suburban development to minimize fire risk to livelihoods, and adapt forest management in the face of climate change. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
关键词	Climate models Deforestation Ecosystems Fire hazards Fire protection Fires Rural areas Adaptive Management Bhutan Blue pine Fire behavior FlamMap Forest fires Himalayas Pinus wallichiana Rural livelihood Wildfire simulation Climate change adaptive management capital city climate change fire behavior fire management forest fire forest management pine wildfire Bhutan Deforestation Ecosystems Fire Protection Fires Pinus Wallichiana Bhutan Thimphu Pinus wallichiana
语种	英语
来源机构	Forest Ecology and Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/132953
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Vilà-Vilardell L.,Keeton W.S.,Thom D.,等. Climate change effects on wildfire hazards in the wildland-urban-interface – Blue pine forests of Bhutan[J]. Forest Ecology and Management,2020,461.
APA	Vilà-Vilardell L.,Keeton W.S.,Thom D.,Gyeltshen C.,Tshering K.,&Gratzer G..(2020).Climate change effects on wildfire hazards in the wildland-urban-interface – Blue pine forests of Bhutan.,461.
MLA	Vilà-Vilardell L.,et al."Climate change effects on wildfire hazards in the wildland-urban-interface – Blue pine forests of Bhutan".461(2020).