气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Fire from policy, human interventions, or biophysical factors? Temporal–spatial patterns of forest fire in southwestern China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2020.118381
	Fire from policy, human interventions, or biophysical factors? Temporal–spatial patterns of forest fire in southwestern China
	Xiong Q.; Luo X.; Liang P.; Xiao Y.; Xiao Q.; Sun H.; Pan K.; Wang L.; Li L.; Pang X.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0378-1127
卷号	474
英文摘要	Forest fire is a recurrent and serious problem which stirs major environmental, economic, and social concerns. Information on the temporal–spatial distribution of ignition probability and identifying the factors that drive the pattern of forest fire occurrences are the most challenging issues over the world. In this study, the spatial distribution and temporal variation in forest fire occurrence were examined by applying the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) algorithm. Redundancy analyses were used to determine the contributions of driving factors (forest fire policy, human interventions, and biophysical variables) to the forest fire occurrences. In addition, the strength of the relationship between the forest fire policy, human interventions, and biophysical variables and their direct and indirect effects on forest fire occurrences were determined using structural equation models (SEMs). Our results showed the Maxent model was suitable for predictive modeling of the distribution of forest fire occurrences in southwestern China. The predicted area of forest fire occurrences in southwestern China during 2000–2017 was 3.25 × 105 km2 which mostly concentrated in the southern region. There was an increasing trend of forest fire crossing national and provincial borders. According to the temporal pattern of forest fire occurrences, additional ignition probability areas including the central Yunnan and the eastern Sichuan were found in spring when compared to those in winter. Moreover, forest fire policy is the main driver underlying the ignition, followed by biophysical factors and human interventions. These should be considered as key elements in the design of forest fire prevention programmes. Although the explanatory power of driving factors varied, national border distance (NBD) and conductive index (CI) that represented effects of forest fire policy were constantly the key driving variables. In addition, there is heterogeneity among the biophysical factors. The meteorological factors significantly affected on ignition probability in different temporal scale, while the effects of topographic factors were smaller. Human interventions had no significant direct effect on ignition probability, while they via fire policy had a significant positive indirect effect on the probability of fire occurrence. The results suggest that we should strengthen the administrative capacities to prevent forest fires, and improve the fire prevention publicity and education on the residents living near the national border and/or in low population density areas to get higher awareness and compliance of forest fire policies for local residents. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
关键词	Biophysics Deforestation Fire hazards Fireproofing Population statistics Probability distributions Spatial distribution Bio-physical variables Forest fire prevention Ignition probability Meteorological factors Population densities Predictive modeling Redundancy analysis Structural equation models Fires anthropogenic effect fire management forest fire heterogeneity meteorology spatial distribution spatiotemporal analysis temporal variation China Deforestation Distribution Driving Fire Prevention Fires Ignition Probability China Sichuan Yunnan
语种	英语
来源机构	Forest Ecology and Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/132639
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xiong Q.,Luo X.,Liang P.,等. Fire from policy, human interventions, or biophysical factors? Temporal–spatial patterns of forest fire in southwestern China[J]. Forest Ecology and Management,2020,474.
APA	Xiong Q..,Luo X..,Liang P..,Xiao Y..,Xiao Q..,...&Pang X..(2020).Fire from policy, human interventions, or biophysical factors? Temporal–spatial patterns of forest fire in southwestern China.,474.
MLA	Xiong Q.,et al."Fire from policy, human interventions, or biophysical factors? Temporal–spatial patterns of forest fire in southwestern China".474(2020).