气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projected regional responses of precipitation extremes and their joint probabilistic behaviors to climate change in the upper and middle reaches of Huaihe River Basin, China

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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104942
	Projected regional responses of precipitation extremes and their joint probabilistic behaviors to climate change in the upper and middle reaches of Huaihe River Basin, China
	Mou S.; Shi P.; Qu S.; Feng Y.; Chen C.; Dong F.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	240
英文摘要	The objective of this paper is to investigate the projected regional responses of univariate and bivariate behaviors of extreme precipitation to climate change over the upper-middle Huaihe River Basin. Based on twelve GCM outputs under historical, RCP4.5 and the observations at 32 rainfall stations, the equidistant cumulative distribution function matching method (EDCDFm) was utilized to bias correct daily precipitation during the historical (1961–2005) and future (2021–2080) periods. Four precipitation indices combinations were introduced based on eight precipitation indices to characterize the regional-scale changes of precipitation events, which designate the duration, intensity and amount of heavy and weak precipitation in a year. Their dependence structures were captured by Copulas. Kendall return period (KRP) were applied to discuss hazard scenarios and we quantified the spatial variability of KRPs under different marginal values. The results indicated that projected precipitation characteristics including the average intensity, the amount of annual precipitation, the intensity and amount of extreme precipitation together with annual extremes displayed increasing trends, while the changes of consecutive wet and dry days did not present pronounced trends. Decreased KRPs in the vast majority of the territory manifested that the frequency of simultaneous floods and droughts in a year as well as that of extreme heavy precipitation events would augment. Obvious spatial heterogeneity of the changes of KRP was partly attributed to the topography difference, especially the coastal areas along the main stream of the Huaihe River. Consequently, there will be a higher risk of water resources-related issues in this region for upcoming decades. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
关键词	Climate change Distribution functions Electric power system interconnection Rivers Spatial distribution Topography Watersheds CMIP5 Copula functions Cumulative distribution function matching Dependence structures Precipitation characteristics Precipitation extremes Precipitation indices Return periods Precipitation (meteorology)climate change CMIP extreme event precipitation (climatology)probability return period spatial distribution China Huai Basin
语种	英语
来源机构	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/132480
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mou S.,Shi P.,Qu S.,et al. Projected regional responses of precipitation extremes and their joint probabilistic behaviors to climate change in the upper and middle reaches of Huaihe River Basin, China[J]. Atmospheric Research,2020,240.
APA	Mou S.,Shi P.,Qu S.,Feng Y.,Chen C.,&Dong F..(2020).Projected regional responses of precipitation extremes and their joint probabilistic behaviors to climate change in the upper and middle reaches of Huaihe River Basin, China.,240.
MLA	Mou S.,et al."Projected regional responses of precipitation extremes and their joint probabilistic behaviors to climate change in the upper and middle reaches of Huaihe River Basin, China".240(2020).