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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104955
	A multi-breakpoint methodology to detect changes in climatic time series. An application to wet season precipitation in subtropical Argentina
	Hurtado S.I.; Zaninelli P.G.; Agosta E.A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	241
英文摘要	Homogeneity is an important characteristic of time series that must be checked before doing any analysis. Breakpoints in meteorological time series are very common due to climatic jumps caused by natural forcing and/or human activity but also, and mainly, produced by inhomogeneities which are erratic in nature. In this work, five breakpoint tests are analyzed to evaluate their performance in detecting breakpoints for different lengths of time series and intensity of breakpoint, among other features, through the realization of numerical experiments of sensitivity. These tests are: Student's, Mann-Whitney, Buishand-R, Pettit and SNHT. The Student's and Mann-Whitney tests show high probability of false breakpoint detection and problems to reproduce the date when a breakpoint occurs. In addition, the Buishand-R and Pettit are more efficient to reproduce the date of breakpoint when it occurs in the middle of a time series while the SNHT does it for breakpoints in its borders. In this sense, the Pettit, Buishand-R and SNHT tests show better performance than the Mann-Whitney and Student's. Furthermore, an original methodology to detect multi-breakpoints based on the aforementioned tests is applied to precipitation time series from sixty-two rain-gauge stations in subtropical Argentina. A breakpoint around 1976 is detected in the wet season (austral warm season), highly likely linked to the well-documented 1976/77 climate transition, by all the used tests and for most of the stations. To a lesser extent, another breakpoint occurred in the mid-1950's. Other breakpoints are also detected in the early 1980s and the early 2000s, though in few stations and by one or two tests. For the breakpoints found in the mid-1950's and in the early 1980's, a strong relationship with two ENSO's indices is found which suggests that changes in long-term ENSO variability could be the cause of these breakpoints. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
关键词	Climatology Rain Rain gages Students Time series Tropics Climate transition High probability Human activities Inhomogeneities Mann-Whitney Numerical experiments Precipitation time series Warm seasons Time series analysis climate change El Nino-Southern Oscillation meteorology precipitation (climatology)time series wet season Argentina
语种	英语
来源机构	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/132466
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hurtado S.I.,Zaninelli P.G.,Agosta E.A.. A multi-breakpoint methodology to detect changes in climatic time series. An application to wet season precipitation in subtropical Argentina[J]. Atmospheric Research,2020,241.
APA	Hurtado S.I.,Zaninelli P.G.,&Agosta E.A..(2020).A multi-breakpoint methodology to detect changes in climatic time series. An application to wet season precipitation in subtropical Argentina.,241.
MLA	Hurtado S.I.,et al."A multi-breakpoint methodology to detect changes in climatic time series. An application to wet season precipitation in subtropical Argentina".241(2020).