气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Seasonal movement prediction of tropical cyclone over the North Indian Ocean by using atmospheric climate variables in statistical models

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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105089
	Seasonal movement prediction of tropical cyclone over the North Indian Ocean by using atmospheric climate variables in statistical models
	Wahiduzzaman M.; Yeasmin A.; Luo J.-J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	245
英文摘要	In this study, the contribution of atmospheric climate variables to the prediction skill of tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the North Indian Ocean (NIO) has been investigated. Statistical forecast models are developed through generalised linear model (GLM) and generalised additive model (GAM) for tropical cyclone trajectories over the NIO using atmospheric climate variables as predictors. TC from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and sets of climate predictor data were analysed for a period of 35-year (1979–2013). The velocity field is predicted by fitting GAM in each month and season. Hindcast validation method is applied to assess the reliability of the model. The skill of the GAM model is compared with GLM and found to be more successful in forecasting TC movement over the NIO region. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
关键词	Hurricanes Motion estimation Storms Tropics Velocity Weather forecasting Atmospheric climate FORECAST model Generalised additive models Generalised linear models Movement prediction North indian oceans Predictor data Tropical cyclone Climate models climate prediction ensemble forecasting hindcasting seasonal variation statistical analysis tropical cyclone Indian Ocean Indian Ocean (North)
语种	英语
来源机构	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/132370
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wahiduzzaman M.,Yeasmin A.,Luo J.-J.. Seasonal movement prediction of tropical cyclone over the North Indian Ocean by using atmospheric climate variables in statistical models[J]. Atmospheric Research,2020,245.
APA	Wahiduzzaman M.,Yeasmin A.,&Luo J.-J..(2020).Seasonal movement prediction of tropical cyclone over the North Indian Ocean by using atmospheric climate variables in statistical models.,245.
MLA	Wahiduzzaman M.,et al."Seasonal movement prediction of tropical cyclone over the North Indian Ocean by using atmospheric climate variables in statistical models".245(2020).