气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Seasonal prediction of surface O3-related meteorological conditions in summer in North China

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105110
	Seasonal prediction of surface O3-related meteorological conditions in summer in North China
	Yin Z.; Li Y.; Cao B.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	246
英文摘要	Ground-level ozone concentrations have evidently increased, and surface O3 pollution has become one of the major air pollutions in the summer in North China. Climate factors could modulate the O3 concentrations in summer. The surface O3-related meteorological conditions in the summer in North China were predicted in this study. Based on the annual increment approach, five observed preceding predictors were used to establish the perdiction models whose performance significantly exceeded the Climate Forecast System. After adding the signals from the climate prediction model, the percentage of the same sign increased to 93.9%, and the bias of the independent tests in 2017 and 2018 were negligible for the climate anomalies. The linear correlation coefficient between the observed and simulated values was 0.84 (P < .01). It is notable that the hybrid prediction models visibly performed better in the recent decade than in previous decades, which played important roles and provided potentials to execute real-time seasonal predictions. This prediction model could allow the government to forecast summer O3 pollution conditions in advance and consequently determine whether extra emission reductions are required to counteract the climate effects. © 2020 The Authors
关键词	Climatology Emission control Forecasting Climate forecasts Climate prediction model Emission reduction Ground level ozone concentration Hybrid prediction models Linear correlation coefficient Meteorological condition Seasonal prediction Climate models atmospheric pollution concentration (composition)meteorology ozone prediction seasonal variation summer China
语种	英语
来源机构	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/132349
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yin Z.,Li Y.,Cao B.. Seasonal prediction of surface O3-related meteorological conditions in summer in North China[J]. Atmospheric Research,2020,246.
APA	Yin Z.,Li Y.,&Cao B..(2020).Seasonal prediction of surface O3-related meteorological conditions in summer in North China.,246.
MLA	Yin Z.,et al."Seasonal prediction of surface O3-related meteorological conditions in summer in North China".246(2020).