气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Evaluation of CMIP5 models and projected changes in temperatures over South Asia under global warming of 1.5 oC, 2 oC, and 3 oC

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.105122
	Evaluation of CMIP5 models and projected changes in temperatures over South Asia under global warming of 1.5 oC, 2 oC, and 3 oC
	Ullah S.; You Q.; Zhang Y.; Bhatti A.S.; Ullah W.; Hagan D.F.T.; Ali A.; Ali G.; Jan M.A.; Khan S.N.; Ali A.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0169-8095
卷号	246
英文摘要	This study was designed to evaluate the spatiotemporal performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models in the historical simulation and future projections of minimum (Tmin), maximum (Tmax), and mean temperature (Tmean) over South Asia (SA) during global warming of 1.5 oC, 2 oC, and 3 oC targets under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. It is worth mentioning that the present study is the first of its kind to use such a large number of CMIP5 models to project future changes in Tmin, Tmax, and Tmean over SA using three different warming thresholds. The results show that CSIRO–MK3–6–0, MIROC–ESM–CHEM, CNRM–CM5, CCSM4, and MRI–CGCM3 models relatively performed better with a consistent and accurate spatiotemporal simulation of Tmin, Tmax, and Tmean over SA. In terms of projected changes, Tmin, Tmax, and Tmean show a dominating and consistent warming pattern over SA with stronger intensity in higher latitude than mid–low latitudes under 1.5 oC, 2 oC, and 3 oC warming thresholds. The northwestern (eastern) regions of SA will witness greater (least) warming in Tmin, Tmax, and Tmean under all warming thresholds in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Furthermore, the central and southern parts of SA will experience a moderate increase in Tmin, Tmax, and Tmean under all warming targets. The uneven and intensified patterns of Tmin, Tmax, and Tmean may result in temperature extremes, which would pose potential risks to the local population. Therefore, more attention should be paid on the regional and local perspectives to estimate the adverse impacts of these extremes under different global warming targets. We further suggest to project future changes in climate extremes over SA under different warming levels, which will be helpful in climate change adaptation and mitigation over the study region. © 2020 Elsevier B.V.
关键词	Global warming Climate change adaptation Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Future projections Historical simulation Local perspective Local populations Spatio-temporal simulation Temperature extremes Climate models climate change climate modeling CMIP computer simulation extreme event future prospect global warming numerical model temperature gradient weather forecasting South Asia
语种	英语
来源机构	Atmospheric Research
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/132339
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ullah S.,You Q.,Zhang Y.,et al. Evaluation of CMIP5 models and projected changes in temperatures over South Asia under global warming of 1.5 oC, 2 oC, and 3 oC[J]. Atmospheric Research,2020,246.
APA	Ullah S..,You Q..,Zhang Y..,Bhatti A.S..,Ullah W..,...&Ali A..(2020).Evaluation of CMIP5 models and projected changes in temperatures over South Asia under global warming of 1.5 oC, 2 oC, and 3 oC.,246.
MLA	Ullah S.,et al."Evaluation of CMIP5 models and projected changes in temperatures over South Asia under global warming of 1.5 oC, 2 oC, and 3 oC".246(2020).