气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Magnitude, trends, and impacts of ambient long-term ozone exposure in the United States from 2000 to 2015

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DOI	10.5194/acp-20-1757-2020
	Magnitude, trends, and impacts of ambient long-term ozone exposure in the United States from 2000 to 2015
	Seltzer K.M.; Shindell D.T.; Kasibhatla P.; Malley C.S.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	16807316
起始页码	1757
结束页码	1775
卷号	20 期号:3
英文摘要	Long-term exposure to ambient ozone (O3) is associated with a variety of impacts, including adverse humanhealth effects and reduced yields in commercial crops. Ground-level O3 concentrations for assessments are typically predicted using chemical transport models; however such methods often feature biases that can influence impact estimates. Here, we develop and apply artificial neural networks to empirically model long-term O3 exposure over the continental United States from 2000 to 2015, and we generate a measurement-based assessment of impacts on human-health and crop yields. Notably, we found that two commonly used human-health averaging metrics, based on separate epidemiological studies, differ in their trends over the study period. The population-weighted, April-September average of the daily 1 h maximum concentration peaked in 2002 at 55.9 ppb and decreased by 0:43 [95 % CI: 0:28, 0:57] ppb yr-1 between 2000 and 2015, yielding an ∼ 18 % decrease in normalized human-health impacts. In contrast, there was little change in the population-weighted, annual average of the maximum daily 8 h average concentration between 2000 and 2015, which resulted in a ∼ 5 % increase in normalized human-health impacts. In both cases, an aging population structure played a substantial role in modulating these trends. Trends of all agriculture-weighted crop-loss metrics indicated yield improvements, with reductions in the estimated national relative yield loss ranging from 1.7 % to 1.9 % for maize, 5.1 % to 7.1 % for soybeans, and 2.7 % for wheat. Overall, these results provide a measurement-based estimate of long-term O3 exposure over the United States, quantify the historical trends of such exposure, and illustrate how different conclusions regarding historical impacts can be made through the use of varying metrics. © 2020 Author(s).
关键词	ambient air artificial neural network atmospheric modeling concentration (composition)crop yield health impact magnitude ozone pollution exposure trend analysis United States Glycine max Triticum aestivum Zea mays
语种	英语
来源机构	Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/132234
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Seltzer K.M.,Shindell D.T.,Kasibhatla P.,et al. Magnitude, trends, and impacts of ambient long-term ozone exposure in the United States from 2000 to 2015[J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2020,20(3).
APA	Seltzer K.M.,Shindell D.T.,Kasibhatla P.,&Malley C.S..(2020).Magnitude, trends, and impacts of ambient long-term ozone exposure in the United States from 2000 to 2015.,20(3).
MLA	Seltzer K.M.,et al."Magnitude, trends, and impacts of ambient long-term ozone exposure in the United States from 2000 to 2015".20.3(2020).