气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Developing a novel hybrid model for the estimation of surface 8 h ozone (O3) across the remote Tibetan Plateau during 2005-2018

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DOI	10.5194/acp-20-6159-2020
	Developing a novel hybrid model for the estimation of surface 8 h ozone (O3) across the remote Tibetan Plateau during 2005-2018
	Li R.; Zhao Y.; Zhou W.; Meng Y.; Zhang Z.; Fu H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	16807316
起始页码	6159
结束页码	6175
卷号	20 期号:10
英文摘要	We developed a two-stage model called the random-forest generalised additive model (RF GAM), based on satellite data, meteorological factors, and other geographical covariates, to predict the surface 8 h O3 concentrations across the remote Tibetan Plateau. The 10-fold cross-validation result suggested that RF GAM showed excellent performance, with the highest R2 value (0.76) and lowest root-mean-square error (RMSE) (14.41 μg m-3), compared with other seven machine-learning models. The predictive performance of RF GAM showed significant seasonal discrepancy, with the highest R2 value observed in summer (0.74), followed by winter (0.69) and autumn (0.67), and the lowest one in spring (0.64). Additionally, the unlearning ground-observed O3 data collected from openaccess websites were applied to test the transferring ability of the novel model and confirmed that the model was robust in predicting the surface 8 h O3 concentration during other periods (R2 D 0:67, RMSE D 25.68 μg m-3). RF GAM was then used to predict the daily 8 h O3 level over the Tibetan Plateau during 2005 2018 for the first time. It was found that the estimated O3 concentration displayed a slow increase, from 64:74 ± 8:30 μg m-3 to 66:45 ± 8:67 μg m-3 from 2005 to 2015, whereas it decreased from the peak to 65:87 ± 8:52 μg m-3 during 2015 2018. Besides this, the estimated 8 h O3 concentrations exhibited notable spatial variation, with the highest values in some cities of the northern Tibetan Plateau, such as Huangnan (73:48±4:53 μg m-3) and Hainan (72:24 ± 5:34 μg m-3), followed by the cities in the central region, including Lhasa (65:99 ± 7:24 μg m-3) and Shigatse (65:15 ± 6:14 μg m-3), and the lowest O3 concentration occurred in a city of the southeastern Tibetan Plateau called Aba (55:17±12:77 μg m-3). Based on the 8 h O3 critical value (100 μg m-3) provided by the World Health Organization (WHO), we further estimated the annual mean nonattainment days over the Tibetan Plateau. It should be noted that most of the cities on the Tibetan Plateau had excellent air quality, while several cities (e.g. Huangnan, Haidong, and Guoluo) still suffered from more than 40 nonattainment days each year, which should be given more attention in order to alleviate local O3 pollution. The results shown herein confirm that the novel hybrid model improves the prediction accuracy and can be applied to assess the potential health risk, particularly in remote regions with few monitoring sites. © 2020 Author(s).
关键词	air quality atmospheric modeling atmospheric pollution concentration (composition)error analysis estimation method machine learning ozone performance assessment pollution monitoring satellite data China Qinghai-Xizang Plateau
语种	英语
来源机构	Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/132012
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li R.,Zhao Y.,Zhou W.,et al. Developing a novel hybrid model for the estimation of surface 8 h ozone (O3) across the remote Tibetan Plateau during 2005-2018[J]. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,2020,20(10).
APA	Li R.,Zhao Y.,Zhou W.,Meng Y.,Zhang Z.,&Fu H..(2020).Developing a novel hybrid model for the estimation of surface 8 h ozone (O3) across the remote Tibetan Plateau during 2005-2018.,20(10).
MLA	Li R.,et al."Developing a novel hybrid model for the estimation of surface 8 h ozone (O3) across the remote Tibetan Plateau during 2005-2018".20.10(2020).