气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A Novel Approach to Carrying Capacity: From a priori Prescription to a posteriori Derivation Based on Underlying Mechanisms and Dynamics

CCPortal

DOI	10.1146/annurev-earth-053018-060428
	A Novel Approach to Carrying Capacity: From a priori Prescription to a posteriori Derivation Based on Underlying Mechanisms and Dynamics
	Mote S.; Rivas J.; Kalnay E.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0084-6597
起始页码	657
结束页码	683
卷号	48
英文摘要	The Human System is within the Earth System. They should be modeled bidirectionally coupled, as they are in reality. The Human System is rapidly expanding, mostly due to consumption of fossil fuels (approximately one million times faster than Nature accumulated them) and fossil water. This threatens not only other planetary subsystems but also the Human System itself. Carrying Capacity is an important tool to measure sustainability, but there is a widespread view that Carrying Capacity is not applicable to humans. Carrying Capacity has generally been prescribed a priori, mostly using the logistic equation. However, the real dynamics of human population and consumption are not represented by this equation or its variants. We argue that Carrying Capacity should not be prescribed but should insteadbe dynamically derived a posteriori from the bidirectional coupling of Earth System submodels with the Human System model. We demonstrate this approach with a minimal model of Human-Nature interaction (HANDY). The Human System is a subsystem of the Earth System, with inputs (resources) from Earth System sources and outputs (waste, emissions) to Earth System sinks. The Human System is growing rapidly due to nonrenewable stocks of fossil fuels and water and threatens the sustainability of the Human System and to overwhelm the Earth System. Carrying Capacity has been prescribed a priori and using the logistic equation, which does not represent the dynamics of the Human System. Our new approach to human Carrying Capacity is derived from dynamically coupled Earth System-Human System models and can be used to estimate the sustainability of the Human System. © Copyright 2020 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.
关键词	Dynamics Sustainable development Bidirectional coupling Earth systems Human population Human system Logistic equations Minimal model New approaches Priori prescriptions Fossil fuels carrying capacity fossil fuel numerical model sustainability
语种	英语
来源机构	Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/131907
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mote S.,Rivas J.,Kalnay E.. A Novel Approach to Carrying Capacity: From a priori Prescription to a posteriori Derivation Based on Underlying Mechanisms and Dynamics[J]. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences,2020,48.
APA	Mote S.,Rivas J.,&Kalnay E..(2020).A Novel Approach to Carrying Capacity: From a priori Prescription to a posteriori Derivation Based on Underlying Mechanisms and Dynamics.,48.
MLA	Mote S.,et al."A Novel Approach to Carrying Capacity: From a priori Prescription to a posteriori Derivation Based on Underlying Mechanisms and Dynamics".48(2020).