气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future floods using hydroclimatic simulations and peaks over threshold: An alternative to nonstationary analysis inferred from trend tests

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DOI	10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.103463
	Future floods using hydroclimatic simulations and peaks over threshold: An alternative to nonstationary analysis inferred from trend tests
	Ammar M.E.; Gharib A.; Islam Z.; Davies E.G.R.; Seneka M.; Faramarzi M.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0309-1708
卷号	136
英文摘要	Nonstationary flood frequency analysis (NFFA) has increasingly been applied to predict future floods under climate change. The inference of nonstationarity from trend tests (INTT) on historical floods is a widespread practice used to justify the application of NFFA; however, its reliability has seldom been investigated. This research examines future floods from interpretations of INTT compared to those obtained from cause-and-effect processes by a hydrological model (INCE). The study uses INCE to quantify the changes in the regime and magnitude of floods due to potential climate change in the mid-21st century using multi-model ensemble simulations under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (i.e., RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Independent peaks over threshold from simulated streamflow were used to estimate the changes in future (2040–2064) flood regimes and magnitudes compared to their historical (1983–2007) counterparts for 29 unregulated catchments across Alberta, Canada. Separation of extreme events and their fittings to generalized Pareto distributions (GPD) were based on a hybrid approach that combined two developed automated threshold selection methods and four estimators for the parameters of the GPD. Based on comparing the results of INTT and INCE, we show that future changes in floods contradict. We also show that the future frequency curves shifted differently at different return periods compared to historical curves, while in some instances, future climate tended to decrease small floods and increase larger floods or vice versa. Finally, flood magnitudes in 2/3 of the studied catchments in Alberta are predicted to intensify, accompanied by increases in the rate of occurrence and earlier shifts in the timing of floods for both climate scenarios, whereas no considerable change in the duration was recognized. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd
关键词	Catchments Climate models Flood control Floods Gas emissions Greenhouse gases Pareto principle Runoff Alberta Ensemble simulation Future flood regimes Hydroclimatic Non-stationarities Peaks over threshold Climate change climate change computer simulation ensemble forecasting flood forecasting future prospect hydrological modeling threshold trend analysis Alberta Canada
语种	英语
来源机构	Advances in Water Resources
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/131876
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ammar M.E.,Gharib A.,Islam Z.,et al. Future floods using hydroclimatic simulations and peaks over threshold: An alternative to nonstationary analysis inferred from trend tests[J]. Advances in Water Resources,2020,136.
APA	Ammar M.E.,Gharib A.,Islam Z.,Davies E.G.R.,Seneka M.,&Faramarzi M..(2020).Future floods using hydroclimatic simulations and peaks over threshold: An alternative to nonstationary analysis inferred from trend tests.,136.
MLA	Ammar M.E.,et al."Future floods using hydroclimatic simulations and peaks over threshold: An alternative to nonstationary analysis inferred from trend tests".136(2020).