气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Ensemble estimation of future rainfall extremes with temperature dependent censored simulation

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DOI	10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.103479
	Ensemble estimation of future rainfall extremes with temperature dependent censored simulation
	Cross D.; Onof C.; Winter H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0309-1708
卷号	136
英文摘要	We present a new approach for estimating the frequency of sub-hourly rainfall extremes in a warming climate with simulation by conditioning Bartlett–Lewis rectangular pulse (BLRP) rainfall model parameters on the mean monthly near surface air temperature. We use a censored modelling approach with multivariate regression to capture the sensitivity of the full set of BLRP parameter estimators to temperature enabling the parameter estimators to be updated. The downscaling framework incorporates uncertainty in climate model projections for moderate and severe carbon forcing scenarios by using an ensemble of climate model outputs. Linear regression on the logarithm of BLRP parameter estimators offers a robust model for parameter estimation with uncertainty. The approach is tested with 5 min rainfall data from Bochum in Germany, and Atherstone in the United Kingdom. We find that the approach is highly effective at estimating rainfall extremes in the present climate, and the estimation of future rainfall extremes appears highly plausible. © 2019
关键词	Climate change Climate models Nearest neighbor search Rain Regression analysis Stochastic systems Climate change impact Extremes K-nearest neighbours Mechanistic stochastic Multivariate regression Parameter estimation climate modeling climate prediction ensemble forecasting numerical model parameter estimation rainfall regression analysis uncertainty analysis weather forecasting Germany United Kingdom
语种	英语
来源机构	Advances in Water Resources
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/131862
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cross D.,Onof C.,Winter H.. Ensemble estimation of future rainfall extremes with temperature dependent censored simulation[J]. Advances in Water Resources,2020,136.
APA	Cross D.,Onof C.,&Winter H..(2020).Ensemble estimation of future rainfall extremes with temperature dependent censored simulation.,136.
MLA	Cross D.,et al."Ensemble estimation of future rainfall extremes with temperature dependent censored simulation".136(2020).