气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A physically-based modelling framework for operational forecasting of river ice breakup

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DOI	10.1016/j.advwatres.2020.103554
	A physically-based modelling framework for operational forecasting of river ice breakup
	Rokaya P.; Morales-Marin L.; Lindenschmidt K.-E.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0309-1708
卷号	139
英文摘要	Forecasting river ice breakup is critical for supporting emergency responses to river ice-related flooding along rivers in the northern hemisphere. However, due to complex river ice processes, forecasting river ice breakup is more challenging than predicting open-water flood conditions. Although considerable progress has been made in understanding the mechanisms and characteristics of breakup processes and in forecasting breakup timing using empirical methods at the local scale, fewer advances have been made in understanding and forecasting breakup using physically-based models, particularly at the catchment scale. In this study, we present a physically-based coupled hydrological and water temperature modelling framework for breakup prediction in cold region catchments in real time. The modelling framework was applied for operational forecasting of the 2019 breakup event along the Athabasca River at Fort McMurray in Alberta. Further model validation was performed by hindcasting the 2016, 2017 and 2018 breakup events. The model shows promising results for predicting the ice cover breakup with an average error of about 5 days, demonstrating its usefulness in real-time operational forecasting. Importantly, the model generates breakup progression at the catchment scale, providing an advantage over existing site specific breakup prediction methods. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
关键词	Catchments Floods Forecasting Rivers Runoff Water management Cold regions Flood risks Hydroclimatic Northern Hemispheres Operational forecasting Physically based models Physically-based Modelling River ice Ice catchment cold region extreme event flood forecasting method glacial hydrology ice breakup Northern Hemisphere risk assessment water management water temperature Alberta Athabasca River Canada
语种	英语
来源机构	Advances in Water Resources
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/131819
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rokaya P.,Morales-Marin L.,Lindenschmidt K.-E.. A physically-based modelling framework for operational forecasting of river ice breakup[J]. Advances in Water Resources,2020,139.
APA	Rokaya P.,Morales-Marin L.,&Lindenschmidt K.-E..(2020).A physically-based modelling framework for operational forecasting of river ice breakup.,139.
MLA	Rokaya P.,et al."A physically-based modelling framework for operational forecasting of river ice breakup".139(2020).