气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The early 20th century warming: Anomalies, causes, and consequences

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DOI	10.1002/wcc.522
	The early 20th century warming: Anomalies, causes, and consequences
	Hegerl G.C.; Brönnimann S.; Schurer A.; Cowan T.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1757-7780
EISSN	1757-7779
卷号	9 期号:4
英文摘要	The most pronounced warming in the historical global climate record prior to the recent warming occurred over the first half of the 20th century and is known as the Early Twentieth Century Warming (ETCW). Understanding this period and the subsequent slowdown of warming is key to disentangling the relationship between decadal variability and the response to human influences in the present and future climate. This review discusses the observed changes during the ETCW and hypotheses for the underlying causes and mechanisms. Attribution studies estimate that about a half (40–54%; p >.8) of the global warming from 1901 to 1950 was forced by a combination of increasing greenhouse gases and natural forcing, offset to some extent by aerosols. Natural variability also made a large contribution, particularly to regional anomalies like the Arctic warming in the 1920s and 1930s. The ETCW period also encompassed exceptional events, several of which are touched upon: Indian monsoon failures during the turn of the century, the “Dust Bowl” droughts and extreme heat waves in North America in the 1930s, the World War II period drought in Australia between 1937 and 1945; and the European droughts and heat waves of the late 1940s and early 1950s. Understanding the mechanisms involved in these events, and their links to large scale forcing is an important test for our understanding of modern climate change and for predicting impacts of future change. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change. © 2018 The Authors. WIREs Climate Change published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
英文关键词	attributing causes to climate change; decadal climate variability; extreme weather and climate events; observed climate change
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Global warming; Greenhouse gases; Military operations; Climate event; Decadal climate variability; Decadal variability; Exceptional events; Human influences; Natural variability; Twentieth century; Underlying cause; Drought; climate change; climate variation; decadal variation; drought; extreme event; global climate; heat wave; twentieth century; weather; Australia; North America
来源期刊	Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/129955
作者单位	School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hegerl G.C.,Brönnimann S.,Schurer A.,et al. The early 20th century warming: Anomalies, causes, and consequences[J],2018,9(4).
APA	Hegerl G.C.,Brönnimann S.,Schurer A.,&Cowan T..(2018).The early 20th century warming: Anomalies, causes, and consequences.Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,9(4).
MLA	Hegerl G.C.,et al."The early 20th century warming: Anomalies, causes, and consequences".Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 9.4(2018).