气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing the value of seasonal climate forecasts for decision-making

CCPortal

DOI	10.1002/wcc.523
	Assessing the value of seasonal climate forecasts for decision-making
	Bruno Soares M.; Daly M.; Dessai S.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	1757-7780
EISSN	1757-7779
卷号	9 期号:4
英文摘要	Seasonal climate forecasts (SCF) can support decision-making and thus help society cope with and prepare for climate variability and change. The demand for understanding the value and benefits of using SCF in decision-making processes can be associated with different logics. Two of these would be the need to justify public and private investment in the provision of SCF and demonstrating the gains and benefits of using SCF in specific decision-making contexts. This paper reviews the main factors influencing how SCF is (or can be) valued in supporting decision-making and the main methods and metrics currently used to perform such valuations. Our review results in four key findings: (a) there is a current emphasis on economic ex ante studies and the quantification of SCF value; (b) there are fundamental differences in how the value of SCF is defined and estimated across methods and approaches; (c) most valuation methods are unable to capture the differential benefits and risks of using SCF across spatiotemporal scales and groups; and (d) there is limited involvement of the decision-makers in the valuation process. The paper concludes by providing some guiding principles towards more effective valuations of SCF, notably the need for a wider diversity and integration of methodological approaches. These should particularly embrace ex-post, qualitative, and participatory approaches which allow co-evaluation with decision-makers so that more comprehensive and equitable SCF valuations can be developed in future. This article is categorized under: Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change > Institutions for Adaptation. © 2018 The Authors. WIREs Climate Change published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
英文关键词	assessing value of climate information; climate services; seasonal climate forecasts; valuation methods; value of climate information for decision-making
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Forecasting; Risk perception; Adaptation to climate changes; Climate information; Climate services; Climate variability and change; Decision making process; Methodological approach; Seasonal climate forecast; Valuation methods; Climate change; climate prediction; decision making; environmental assessment; valuation; weather forecasting
来源期刊	Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/129954
作者单位	University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bruno Soares M.,Daly M.,Dessai S.. Assessing the value of seasonal climate forecasts for decision-making[J],2018,9(4).
APA	Bruno Soares M.,Daly M.,&Dessai S..(2018).Assessing the value of seasonal climate forecasts for decision-making.Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,9(4).
MLA	Bruno Soares M.,et al."Assessing the value of seasonal climate forecasts for decision-making".Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 9.4(2018).