气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Preserving the coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback in initializations of decadal climate predictions

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DOI	10.1002/wcc.637
	Preserving the coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback in initializations of decadal climate predictions
	Brune S.; Baehr J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1757-7780
EISSN	1757-7779
卷号	11 期号:3
英文摘要	On interannual to decadal time scales, memory in the Earth's climate system resides to a large extent in the slowly varying heat content of the ocean, which responds to fast atmospheric variability and in turn sets the frame for large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. This large-scale coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback is generally well represented in today's Earth system models. This may fundamentally change when data assimilation is used to bring such models close to an observed state to initialize interannual to decadal climate predictions. Here, we review how the large-scale coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback is preserved in common approaches to construct such initial conditions, with the focus on the initialized ocean state. In a set of decadal prediction experiments, ranging from an initialization of atmospheric variability only to full-field nudging of both atmosphere and ocean, we evaluate the variability and predictability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, of the Atlantic multidecadal variability and North Atlantic subpolar gyre sea surface temperatures. We argue that the quality of initial conditions for decadal predictions should not purely be assessed by their closeness to observations, but also by the closeness of their respective predictions to observations. This prediction quality may depend on the representation of the simulated large-scale atmosphere–ocean feedback. This article is categorized under: Climate Models and Modeling > Knowledge Generation with Models. © 2020 The Authors. WIREs Climate Change published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
英文关键词	coupled data assimilation; decadal climate prediction; earth system model; large-scale atmosphere-ocean feedback; model-consistent initialization
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Earth atmosphere; Oceanography; Surface waters; Weather forecasting; Atlantic meridional overturning circulations; Atmospheric circulation patterns; Atmospheric variability; Climate prediction; Data assimilation; Earth system model; Multidecadal variability; Sea surface temperature (SST); Climate models; air-sea interaction; atmosphere-ocean coupling; atmospheric circulation; climate feedback; climate modeling; climate prediction; decadal variation; meridional circulation; sea surface temperature; weather forecasting; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North)
来源期刊	Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/129890
作者单位	Institute of Oceanography, CEN, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Brune S.,Baehr J.. Preserving the coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback in initializations of decadal climate predictions[J],2020,11(3).
APA	Brune S.,&Baehr J..(2020).Preserving the coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback in initializations of decadal climate predictions.Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,11(3).
MLA	Brune S.,et al."Preserving the coupled atmosphere–ocean feedback in initializations of decadal climate predictions".Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 11.3(2020).