气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The added value of real options analysis for climate change adaptation

CCPortal

DOI	10.1002/wcc.642
	The added value of real options analysis for climate change adaptation
	Wreford A.; Dittrich R.; van der Pol T.D.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1757-7780
EISSN	1757-7779
卷号	11 期号:3
英文摘要	Climate change adaptation investment decisions can be made more efficiently if uncertainty and new information are considered in their economic appraisal. Real options analysis (ROA) is a robust decision-making tool that allows for the incorporation of both uncertainty and new information. In this opinion article, we argue that ROA is a valuable tool, providing the analysis is designed to reflect the real-world characteristics of the decision context. We highlight the differences between traditional risk-based ROA, and scenario-based ROA, and discuss the relative merits of the approaches from the perspective of their assumptions and use of climate information. We also emphasize the need for increased co-development of ROA design and applications with end-users. Given the large climate uncertainties for long-term adaptation planning, we suggest that an emerging strand of scenario-based ROA methods offers ways to help identify and conditionally value flexibility without aggregating values into precise expected values across states of the world. This article is categorized under: Climate Economics > Iterative Risk-Management Policy Portfolios. © 2020 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
英文关键词	adaptation; climate change; decision-making; real options analysis; uncertainty
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Decision making; Economics; Investments; Iterative methods; Risk management; Risk perception; Uncertainty analysis; Value engineering; adaptation; Climate change adaptation; Climate information; Design and application; Economic appraisal; Investment decisions; Real options analysis; uncertainty; Climate change; adaptive management; climate change; decision making; environmental planning
来源期刊	Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/129887
作者单位	AERU, Lincoln University, Lincoln, New Zealand; University of Portland, Portland, OR, United States; Global Climate Forum, Berlin, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wreford A.,Dittrich R.,van der Pol T.D.. The added value of real options analysis for climate change adaptation[J],2020,11(3).
APA	Wreford A.,Dittrich R.,&van der Pol T.D..(2020).The added value of real options analysis for climate change adaptation.Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,11(3).
MLA	Wreford A.,et al."The added value of real options analysis for climate change adaptation".Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 11.3(2020).